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12.11.2019
03:19 PM


BTC 11.12.2019 -Broken bear flag pattern, more downside yet to come

Bitcoin is poised to go down. I do expect new downside leg due to the breakout of bear flag pattern on the 4h time-frame. Watch for selling opportunities with the main target at $7.506.

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MACD is trading below the zero in the negative territory, which is sign that sellers are in control. In the background, I found that there is filled gap, which is another strong sign that sellers are in control. Bollinger band mid-lane served like a good resistance at $8.850. Main downward target is set at $7.506.

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12.11.2019
03:08 PM


GBP/USD 11.12.2019 - Potential end of the downwad correciton, weatch for buying opportuntiies

GBP/USD is trading sideways at the price of 1.2845. Anyway, I see that there is potential for further upside and potential testing of resistance levels at 1.2897 and 1.2972. Watch for buying opportunities

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I found that there is potential for the completion of the ABC downward correction on the 4H time-frame and eventual new up leg. In the background, I found that there is the breakout of the downward channel, which is good addition to the GBP potential strength. Resistance levels are set at 1.2897 and 1.2972. Support level is seen at the price of 1.2814.

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12.11.2019
02:51 PM


Gold 11.12.2019 - Bullish divergence in creation, watch for potential upside

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.454 but in the oversold condition. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities with the upward targets at $1.465 and $1.472.

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Yellow rectangles - Resistance levels and upward objectives

Rising trendline - Expected path

MACD oscillator is showing 3 pushes down and bullish divergence , which is sign that sellers are losing power on the downside and that upside is expected. Key support level is set at $1.448 and resistance levels at $1.465 and $1.472.

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12.11.2019
01:26 PM


GBP/USD: plan for the American session on November 12th. The pound sank after leaving euphoria from the statements of the

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Buyers failed to continue the upward trend of the British pound, which was formed after yesterday's news from the leader of the Brexit party. I spoke about this in more detail in my morning forecast. Weak data on the UK labor market pushed the pound to the major support of 1.2827, which buyers are trying to hold. While trading is conducted above this range, there is a probability of continuing the upward correction of the pound and its return to today's highs of 1.2864, where I recommend taking the profits. A break of this range will open a direct path to the resistance of 1.2895. If buyers fail to hold the level of 1.2827 in the afternoon, it is best to return to long positions on the rebound from the support of 1.2799 or at a monthly minimum in the area of 1.2769.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bullish optimism has dried up, and prolonged trading in the support area of 1.2827 indicates a clear lack of buyers of the pound at the current level. A break in this range in the afternoon will lead to a further decrease in GBP/USD and a return to the supports of 1.2799 and 1.2769, where I recommend taking the profits. However, it should be remembered that the pound will be more subject to fluctuations in the election news and the current technical picture will not always justify itself at such moments. In the case of GBP/USD growth in the North American session, you can count on short positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2864 or sell the pound immediately on a rebound from the maximum of 1.2895.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates some market uncertainty with the advantage of buyers.

Bollinger Bands

The pair has already been supported by the lower border of the indicator around 1.2825, a breakthrough of which will lead to a larger sell-off. Growth will be limited to the upper level at 1.2870.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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12.11.2019
01:13 PM


EUR/USD: plan for the American session on November 12th. Bears return to the market even amid good reports from the ZEW Institute

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Buyers of the European currency failed to hold the support level of 1.1025 even against the background of good reports on the mood in the business environment of the eurozone and Germany, which indicates a bearish market condition. Now, the focus has shifted to the speech of American President Donald Trump, which will be held today during the North American session, as well as statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve System. The main task of the bulls will be to return to the resistance level of 1.1025, above which the demand for the euro will return, which will lead to an update of the highs of 1.1054 and 1.1081, where I recommend taking the profits. If the pressure on EUR/USD will continue, then I recommend to look at long positions only after the update of the minimum of 1.0995 or buy immediately on the rebound from the support of 1.0965.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers coped with the morning task, and after ignoring the bull's reports on sentiment in the eurozone and Germany, they returned the pair to the level of 1.1025. The main task for the second half of the day will be to hold this range, and the formation of a false breakdown there will lead to a larger decrease in EUR/USD in the area of the lows of 1.0995 and 1.0965, where I recommend taking the profits. The pressure on the euro will ease only if Donald Trump in today's speech continues to criticize the Fed for interest rates and demand further reduction. With an upward correction and the pair returning to the resistance of 1.1025, the first active short positions can be observed near the maximum of 1.1054, but larger sellers will prefer to return to the market only after the test of the maximum of 1.1081.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market with a slight advantage of sellers.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of euro growth, the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1045 will act as an intermediate resistance.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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12.11.2019
01:05 PM


Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 12, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair was trading around the area of 1.1037 a week ago.

The EUR/USD pair faced strong resistance at the level of 1.1037 because support became resistance.

The trend is continuing with a bearish trend from the new resistance of 1.1037. The current price is set at the level of 1.1018.

Further close below the low end may cause a drop towards 1.0991. Nonetheless, the weekly support level and zone should be considered.

The price is in a bearish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to move between 1.1037 and 1.0946.

Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move down side and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Also, the RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market

If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.1018 (the current price), the market will indicate a bullish opportunity below the level of 1.1037.

A breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.0991. Sell orders are recommended below the area of 1.1037 with the first target at the level of 1.0991; and continue towards 1.0946. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 1.0946 to take place today.

Please notice that this scenario will be invalidated if the price reverses above the wave 2 highs at the level of 1.1086. But overall I still prefer the bearish scenario at this phase.

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12.11.2019
11:33 AM


Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair – placement of trade orders (November 12)

The quotation froze within the control point # 2, what can the slowdown lead to and is there a chance to see step # 3? – we will analyze these issues in our article.

From technical analysis, we see a slight pullback from the fulcrum in the face of the psychological level of 1.1000, where without any dynamics, the quote took a wait-and-see position. The recovery phase #2 has almost reached its benchmark level of 1.1000, where market participants received a subsequent signal of a possible move since relative to the entire value of the oblong correction, we received 54% of the working off, which is already the norm of recovery. In terms of volatility, there was a downturn yesterday, which reflected a clear restraint and lack of buyers. Whether this can be considered a signal of the upcoming breakdown at the level of 1.1000 will show time, which is more interesting to me, is this correlation ratio between the EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs. So last day for the pound/dollar pair was expressed in the form of an upward momentum of 118 points, against the background of the information flow, but at the same time, such a close pair on the market of the euro/dollar did not repeat the move. Yes, I understand that this news, on which the pound jumped, is purely inside the British noise, but from technology and correlation, a pattern could play, but it was not. Thus, the question is, the correlation between the pairs has fallen strongly or is it a short number of short positions in phase # 2, which simply does not make it possible to fully unfold.

Analyzing the past day hourly, we will encounter a narrow corridor of 17-18 points, which came to replace the rollback. As you understand, no impulses, jumps, were recorded in this period.

As discussed in the previous review, traders actively began to consider closing short positions, from the point of view that a rebound from the support of 1.1000 is still possible and the risk of loss of profits is great. This decision was not unanimous and many traders continued to hold short positions while considering topping up outside the control point.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), we see the second phase of the recovery relative to the oblong correction, where 132 points remain to go to the fulcrum of the current year. Let me remind you that currently, the trend for the euro/dollar pair is downward. The point of the trend report is from February 2018. The global trend, counting from July 2008.

The news background of the last day did not have statistical data, in addition to everything, the United States had a day off, celebrated "Veterans Day", which also affected trading volumes and volatility.

The information background was practically absent, so the US-China relations were again discussed on the sidelines, outside the cameras of the media, thus we have a temporary silence in this direction. The Brexit divorce proceedings are now in the background since Britain is busy with the parliamentary elections, and before them, there will be no discussion/approval of the transaction.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have statistics for Europe and the United States again. The only thing we have is the speech of US President Donald Trump in the "New York Economic Club", the theme of the speech will be the economy and trade. At the same time, there was a rumor from the media in the face of the American edition of Politico that Trump will make an important announcement this week on biteable duties on cars from the European Union. Referring to the source, the American leader plans to postpone input for six months. Let me remind you that back in May of this year there was not a small noise regarding possible duties from the USA and the EU, where some wanted to increase duties by 25% for European cars, while others threatened with mirror measures in the form of additional duties of € 35 billion for American goods.

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Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we continue to observe a rather sluggish oscillation within the same psychological level of 1.1000. Stage #2 continues its formation, oscillating near the reference point of support, where the desire of sellers is dominated by the volume of buyers. In terms of volatility, there is a characteristic decline, but it is due to the fulcrum and indecision in terms of the transition steps #2 – #3. The emotional component of the market confirms the dynamics of volatility, in terms of indecision, and perhaps even a kind of readiness, which is expressed in the regrouping of trading forces.

By detailing the available time interval, we see all the same narrow fluctuation within 18 points, where this time we have a transition not from a rollback to stagnation, but from stagnation to recovery.

In turn, some traders, because of insurance, nevertheless leave previously open short positions, which is probably the right step, but at the same time, if you operate with moderate money management, you can continue to work in the existing transaction, also considering locally – alternative positions.

It is likely to assume that the general downward mood will remain in the market, where the priority is in the form of distribution of trading forces within 1.1015/1.1040. That is, in the case of a flight lower than 1.1015, the probability of breaking the psychological mark of 1.1000 will be great, but at the same time, it is possible to repeat the plot of the breakdown of the level of 1.1080, where there were multiple approaches, before the main movement. An alternative scenario is considered in the case of restraining trading forces and working off the level of 1.1000, where the market entry is considered in the area of 1.1045-1.1055.

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Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

  • Buy positions are considered if the price goes to the area of 1.1045-1.1055.
  • Sales positions are held in the direction of the level of 1.1000, followed by prolongation in the direction of 1.0950 (variable level), and the main finishing stage of recovery of 1.0880.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in all major time intervals signal the prevailing downward interest. It is worth considering that the indicators in the short-term interval are a good indicator, due to the characteristic stagnation.

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Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year.

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

( November 12 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 19 points, which is a low indicator for this period. It is likely to assume that in the event of a breakdown of the main fulcrum, an acceleration of volatility is possible. If the chatter along the psychological level persists, then the volatility will not change.

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Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.1080**; 1.1180* ; 1.1300**; 1.1450; 1.1550; 1.1650*; 1.1720**; 1.1850**; 1.2100.

Support zones: 1.1000***; 1.0900/1.0950**;1.0850**; 1.0500***; 1.0350**; 1.0000***.

* Periodic level

** Range level

*** Psychological level

***** The article is based on the principle of conducting transactions, with daily adjustments.

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12.11.2019
11:32 AM


November 12, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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On October 2, a bullish breakout above 1.0940 confirmed the depicted Inverted Head & Shoulders reversal Pattern which opened the way for further bullish advancement towards (1.1000 -1.1020)

This bullish movement has been maintained above the depicted bullish trend.

On October 7, temporary sideway consolidation range was demonstrated around the price zone of (1.1000 -1.1020) before further bullish movement was resumed towards 1.1175 where significant bearish rejection was originated.

The price zone around (1.1175 - 1.1190) stood as a significant SUPPLY-Zone that demonstrated bearish rejection for two consecutive times in a short-period.

Moreover, the short-term technical outlook has turned into bearish after breakdown below 1.1090 was achieved (the depicted uptrend line and 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level).

On the other hand, a long-term Double-Top pattern was demonstrated with neckline located around 1.1075-1.1090 which offered bearish rejection upon last week's retesting.

Quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.1025 and 1.0995 provided that the bearish breakout below 1.1090-1.1070 is maintained on a daily basis.

Recently, temporary bullish rejection is being applied around 1.1015 where a short-term double bottom pattern may be demonstrated with a bullish target projected towards 1.1085.

On the other hand, Any bullish pullback towards 1.1065-1.1085 should be watched for early bearish rejection and another valid SELL entry.

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12.11.2019
11:11 AM


November 12, 2019 : Successive descending tops are demonstrated. Hence, GBPUSD is expected to demonstrate further Bearish

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Few weeks ago, Further Bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2800 then 1.3000 when the neckline of the depicted Double-Bottom pattern (1.2400-1.2415) was breached to the upside.

Since October 21, the GBP/USD pair has failed to achieve a persistent bullish breakout above the depicted SUPPLY-zone (1.2980-1.3000) which corresponds to a previous Prominent-TOP that goes back to May 2019.

Moreover, the depicted ascending wedge reversal pattern has been confirmed indicating a high probability of bearish reversal around the price-zone of 1.2950-1.2970.

Hence, a quick bearish movement was anticipated towards 1.2780 (Key-Level) where some bullish recovery was recently initiated on October 24.

The recent Bullish rejection around the price levels of 1.2780, indicated another temporary bullish movement towards 1.2980-1.3000 where another long-term bearish swing was initiated as expected.

Since last week, signs of bullish recovery have been demonstrated around 1.2780. However, The short-term outlook remains bearish as long as consolidations are maintained below 1.2900.

On the other hand, a quick bearish breakout below 1.2780 is needed to enable further bearish decline towards 1.2600-1.2650 where some bullish recovery should be anticipated.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders should wait for bearish breakout below 1.2780 as a valid SELL entry. Expected Bearish target is projected towards 1.2650 then probably 1.2560.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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12.11.2019
10:39 AM


Bad data on Germany. EURUSD

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ZEW index released on the German economy: current conditions minus 24.7 – bad data.

The EURUSD rate experienced pressure and moved down.

Question: either we test 1.1000 down – or a turn-up and an attempt to break through 1.1045.

We are ready to buy euros from 1.1045.

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12.11.2019
09:51 AM


Overview and trading ideas for GBP/USD on November 12th

Hello, dear colleagues!

The analysis of the pound/dollar currency pair will begin with the summary of the previous week, which the "Briton", with all the desire, can not bring himself into the asset in any way. Let me remind you that on November 4-8, the GBP/USD currency pair sank by 1.15%.

But tellingly, with the remaining unresolved Brexit and far from impressive macroeconomic statistics, the British pound feels more confident in the foreign exchange market than the same euro. I believe that technical factors play a decisive role here, as well as the movement of sterling in crosses, among which it is worth highlighting EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF.

Do not forget about the election campaign, which began in the UK. It is clear that all its ups and downs, including various statements, the appearance of compromising evidence and the like, will affect the dynamics of the British currency. Given the speculative nature of the pound, movements can be quite strong and sharp, but at the same time short-term.

During yesterday's trading, we saw a vivid confirmation of this. After the emergence of information that Nigel Faraj was not going to fight the conservatives, the GBP/USD pair took off. Frankly, I do not see any special reasons for such strengthening. The World Faraj with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not an event that should help strengthen the pound. Let me remind you that, apart from high-profile statements, Johnson has not yet been able to achieve anything in the framework of the implementation of the "tough" Brexit, of which he is an ardent supporter.

If we identify the important macroeconomic events that will come from the UK this week, these are preliminary data on GDP for the 3rd quarter, labor market reports, consumer price index, retail sales.

Today, at 10:30 (London time), data on the labor market of the United Kingdom will be published, which will undoubtedly lead to high volatility in all pairs with the British currency. Those who trade the pound, I recommend being careful and very careful!

Now let's move on to the technical picture of the pound/dollar pair and try to find interesting options for opening positions. However, I want to warn you that today's important labor statistics from the UK can make significant adjustments to the forecast, which will be made based on technical analysis.

Daily

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The first important detail that catches the eye is the breakdown of the strong support level of 1.2788. Although it must be admitted that closing one candle below/above the level does not mean its true breakdown. As practice shows, to consider a breakthrough completed, it is necessary to see the closure of three consecutive candles above or below the level.

As proof, following the results of yesterday's trading, the pair made a comeback and closed the session on November 11 above the important mark of 1.2850. Today will be a kind of "moment of truth" for the British currency. I would like to draw attention to the fact that yesterday's strong rise today may be followed by an equally strong fall in the pound.

I would not like to give any recommendations just to give them. The day for trading the pound is very difficult. As for my personal opinion about the prospects of GBP/USD, they look about 50/50. However, a little is more inclined to the bearish scenario.

Today, the nearest targets are at the top of 1.2870, 1.2900, 1.2970, and possibly 1.3010. The nearest benchmarks, in the case of a downward scenario, will be 1.2785, 1.2765, 1.2700, and possibly 1.2660.

Success!

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12.11.2019
09:51 AM


Trading idea for NZDUSD

Good day, dear traders! This time, we will talk about the NZD/USD currency pair, because this instrument has a long-term prospect for a decrease and the formation of a weekly Price Action pattern "Absorption". On the weekly timeframe, there is a global, downward trend, and hints at its continuation last week. The first thing to pay attention to is a false breakdown of the level of 0.6448 at the beginning of last week. But the most important thing that this instrument expects is an interest rate decision early Wednesday morning, with the Central Bank forecast to cut the rate from 1% to 0.75%, which will certainly be the main driver this week. But the most important thing that this tool expects is a decision on the interest rate on Wednesday morning, and the Central Bank is projected to lower the rate from 1% to 0.75%, which will certainly be the main driver this week. Therefore, the recommendation for this instrument is to try to take a sell position, but preferably after the publication of the decision on the interest rate. I consider the level of 0.6237 to be the first goal to reduce, and the second – 0.6200.

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It is important to remember that this is a long-term recommendation and it can take a considerable time to implement.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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12.11.2019
08:41 AM


Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trade orders (November 12)

For the first time in a long time, the pound / dollar currency pair showed high volatility. So, what was the reason for the surge and how it affected the overall movement? - we will answer these questions in our article

From the point of view of technical analysis, we see an amazing rally of 118 points directed upward, where the quotation with a surgical accuracy worked out the range level of 1.2770 [1.2750 / ( 1.2770) / 1,2800] once again. Let me remind you that for eleven trading days in a row the market tormented us with extremely weak volatility [58 -> 65 -> 97 -> 62 -> 75 -> 45 -> 67 -> 58 -> 53 -> 83 -> 53 points], which fully reflected the indecision of market participants to action, at the same time, escalating the intrigue - but what will all this lead to? All this led to a surge in long positions, but what has changed is nothing! The movement within the two levels of 1.2770 / 1.3000 remains to this day, which, on the one hand, is bad, and on the other, it is good. Thus, the dark side reflects to us that we are not moving anywhere. The price at the peak of the inertial course formed a flat, where the main movement will resume only when the borders fall. The bright side of the existing fluctuation is that on such a wide range, you can earn quite well. Now, returning to the existing movement again, in the range of 1.2770 / 1.3000, you should pay attention to the peaks on October 21 and 31 [chart H4]. Theoretically, there is a downward cycle in the structure of the channel, but so far there is little data. The main theory is formed around the horizontal course [flat], where we have already received repeated confirmations and the current resistance point, in the structure of yesterday's impulse there were just coordinates representing 50% [1.2885] relative to the boundaries of 1.2770 / 1.3000.

Analyzing the past hourly hour, we see a progressive upward move from the level of 1.2770, where the main jump occurred in the period 9:00-11:00 [UTC+00 time on the trading terminal]. We will analyze the cause and effect of the jump a little later.

As discussed in the previous review, traders were not eager for hasty actions. Their main task was to evaluate the future movement and understand what would happen next - a rebound or breakdown relative to the key level of 1.2770. The task in terms of monitoring the values of 1.2750 / 1.2800 paid off, and as soon as the quotation moved to fixing on the range 1.2830-1.2840, there was a gulf of long positions, which almost immediately reflected the profit on the trading deposit. A partial and full exit was already made in the mid-flat region [1.2885]. Trading tactics and forecast coincided 100%, thus, congratulate everyone on the next profit!

Considering the trading chart in general terms [the daily period], we do not see any cardinal change. All movement is still concentrated within the boundaries of 1.2770 / 1.3000. A relatively global trend are all unchanged and the trend is downward.

Moreover, the news background of the past day contained preliminary data on UK GDP for the third quarter, where the slowdown in economic growth was from 1.3% to 1.0% with a forecast of 1.1%. In turn, the data on industrial production in Britain keep the decline to -1.4%.

Market reaction to statistical indicators was practically absent due to pressure from other factors.

So what triggered a surge in pound sterling?

The Brexit party boosted Prime Minister Boris Johnson's chances of a majority victory following a statement that the Brexit party would not fight to oust the conservatives in the UK general election on December 12. Against this background, the pound sharply rushed up.

"In a sense, we now have an alliance of supporters of the country's exit from the EU. We decided to put the country's interests above party interests and fight the Laborites." said Nigel Farage, leader of the Brexit Party.

Farage also added that he does not have much love for the Conservative Party, but wants to give Johnson a chance.

In turn, Boris Johnson said: "I am glad that there is recognition that there is only one way to make Brexit, and that is to vote for us and vote for the conservatives".

analytics5dca6a4dd2110.jpg

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on the UK labor market, where the unemployment rate is expected to remain at the same limits of 3.9% as the level of wages, taking into account [excluding] bonuses. At the same time, they are waiting for the publication of data on orders for unemployment benefits, where, depending on the sources, the indicators vary. Thus, some predict a growth of 3 thousand, while others, on the contrary, decrease by 1 thousand.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that after the last surge in prices, the quote was under local overbought, slowing down the move and, as a fact, forming a stagnation with a pullback, which for a while focused on the values of 1.2845 / 1.2866. In fact, we have worked out two values: the first is the lower boundary of the range in the face of the level of 1.2770, the second is the value of 1.2885, the middle of the range is 1.2770 / 1.3000, which is the mirror level in everyday life.

In terms of volatility and emotional mood, we have temporary restraint, but this more reflects the waiting process.

By detailing the per minute movement, we see that the stagnation during the Pacific and Asian trading sessions led to the formation of an excellent platform [market slowdown], which many people paid attention to. With the advent of Europeans, bursts of activity appeared in the market, which led to the shooting of morning accumulation.

In turn, traders at the mirror level of 1.2885, as well as during the period of morning stagnation, switched to partial and full fixation of previously received profit from long positions.

Having a general picture of actions, it is possible to produce a number of scenarios: The first one considers the reverse process, that is, referring to the fact that the past impulse was against the background of emotions and there is already working out a mirror level of 1.2885, the quote can return back to 1.2800 / 1.2770. The second scenario considers further movement towards the upper border of the flat, but in this case, we need a clear price fixation higher than 1.2885 / 1.2895.

analytics5dca6a8966154.jpg

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- Buy positions are considered in the region of 1.2885 / 1.2895, with a prospect of 1.2950-1.3000.

- Sales positions are considered in the range of 1.2840-1.2830, with the prospect of a move to 1.2800 / 1.2770.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that due to the recent surge in indicators, the indicators are in a fever. Thus, the intraday perspective took the upside, which is justified in terms of working out the bottom border of the flat. Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook holds back the attempt to break the 1.2770 border, but the indicators are on the verge of a change of interest. Short-term periods, in turn, randomly jump due to stagnation / pullback.

analytics5dca7886d0303.png

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(November 12 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 26 points, which is a low indicator for a given time interval. It is likely to assume that there is still a chance of accelerating volatility as soon as we see a full way out of morning stagnation.

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Key levels

Resistance Zones: 1.3000; 1.3170 **; 1.3300 **.

Support areas: 1.2770 **; 1.2700 *; 1.2620; 1.2580 *; 1.2500 **; 1.2350 **; 1.2205 (+/- 10p.) *; 1.2150 **; 1,2000 ***; 1.1700; 1.1475 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment

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12.11.2019
08:34 AM


Diary of a trader EURUSD 11/12/2019

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"Remember: Cavorite is done this way...." (The City Of Wells. The first people on the moon)

So, from the very beginning.

Traders are divided into intuitive trading and system specialists (trading in strict TS – trading systems).

In the long term, the chances of surviving in the market are much higher for the system operator.

The system specialist needs a vehicle. What is a vehicle? In its most general form, a rigid set of rules defining: a) an asset (on which we trade); b) trading idea – a type of system; c) timeframe; d) signals/entry points; e) exit points from the market; e) capital management.

A simple vehicle contains entry signals – exit points – money management.

However, in the conditions of a long trading period (10 years or more), a simple vehicle will almost inevitably encounter such an unfavorable state of the market that the most sophisticated and ultra-cautious capital management will not save from significant difficulties.

The solution?

A more complex, more intelligent system is a two-tier one.

Higher level – determining the state of the market (higher time frames)

Lower level – the system of drawing the current state of the market.

Ideally, the system trader has a proven system of drawing both the trend and the range.

EURUSD: current market condition: range.

How to identify?

See the chart above (weekly chart).

We have fully formed not broken (!) Fractal levels up (1.1180) and down (1.0880).

Thus, this range is 1.0880 – 1.1180.

Draw options: range – purchases below the middle, that is, below 1.1030 with reopening if the price goes below or sales above 1.1030 similarly.

In the case of a break above 1.1180 / below 1.0880 – and closing the day outside the range – take the stops on positions to return to the range and start to play the trend.

To be continued.

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12.11.2019
08:16 AM


Trading strategy for EUR/USD on November 12th. Standby mode continues

EUR/USD – 4H.

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and closed above the correction level of 50.0% (1.1030) after the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator. Thus, today, November 12, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% (1.1066). The downward trend channel allows such a scenario since at the moment the quotes are near its bottom line of the trend channel. Fixing the euro/dollar exchange rate under the Fibo level of 50.0% will work again in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall towards the next correction level of 61.8% (1.0995).

In the preview for the week, I said that the first days will be terribly boring, as no economic reports for these days are contained in the calendars of the US and the EU. The first day of the week fully justified this assumption. The euro/dollar pair started a pullback, which was warned in advance by the bullish divergence, while the activity of traders remains almost at zero. It is easy to assume that traders are waiting for tomorrow and the next days of the week when the information background will be stronger.

Thus, today the euro currency may roll back up a little more, but it is unlikely that the daily move of the pair will exceed 30-35 points. In such circumstances, each trader decides for himself whether he wants to open new deals if the market is almost immobilized. I believe that now is not the best time to trade, at least inside the day. In the longer term, you can consider opening deals, but then you have to guess the nature of all the economic reports that will be released this week. There will be many, and they will all be important. Thus, I believe that it is extremely difficult to guess the general movement of the pair for the next 4 days, especially since the direction may change.

Based on all of the above, I believe that today it is better to wait "on the fence", and tomorrow to trade "on the trend", "on the market" and "on the information background". The general information backdrop remains in favor of the US currency as China and the US move towards a trade agreement and the Federal Reserve appears to have taken a pause in the refinancing rate cut cycle. These are all absolutely bearish factors. And there is no positive news from the European Union. Christine Lagarde replaced Mario Draghi as ECB but has not yet made any comments on the change in the policy of the regulator. Economic data from the EU continue to disappoint, to a large extent, so the ECB has the necessary grounds for another reduction in the deposit rate. The quantitative easing program, which was restarted on November 1, has not yet yielded any positive results. At least, it is not reflected in economic reports.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

On November 12, traders are likely to continue to work out the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator and move the pair slightly upwards. At the same time, I do not expect strong growth in the euro currency, as I do not expect the high activity of the forex market on this day. I recommend selling a pair in the event of a close below the Fibo level of 50.0% with the target of 1.0995, but it is better to do this as close as possible to tomorrow and taking into account all the reports and events scheduled for Wednesday, November 13.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of October 1, 2019, and October 21, 2019.

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12.11.2019
08:07 AM


Trading strategy for GBP/USD on November 12th. The pound remains influenced by politics instead of paying attention to the

GBP/USD – 4H.

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the English currency and secured above Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2836) after the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator. Thus, the growth process of the pair can be continued today in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.3044), but it is unlikely that quotes will be able to close above the upper line of the trend downward channel. In the area of the upper line of the channel, traders can expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall in the direction of the lower line of the trend channel. There are no new emerging divergences in any indicator today.

The growth of the GBP/USD pair yesterday did not correspond to the nature of the economic reports released in the UK. Unfortunately, the British pound, or rather traders of the British currency, continue to pay more attention to the news of a political nature and related to Brexit. Thus, yesterday, traders were impressed by the message that the party "Brexit" is not going to compete in the elections with the Conservative Party, but on the contrary, it would try to help it win the most votes. Traders considered positive for the "Briton" in this news, although what exactly is positive from the unspoken pre-election coalition of the two parties supporting the "hard" Brexit. Conservatives are still ready for Brexit with an agreement, but they supported Boris Johnson's initiatives when he intended to withdraw the country from the European Union without any agreements. Thus, it can be considered that the conservatives support the Brexit option "No Deal" as well.

Well, economic reports from the UK yesterday confirmed the worst-case scenarios and assumptions. Gross Domestic Product declined to 1.0% y/y in the third quarter. This is not the final value, but for the pound, it is even worse than if it were final, as traders can expect even more deterioration in this indicator. Industrial production decreased by 1.4% y/y, in the processing industry – by 1.8% y/y. Since yesterday these reports were ignored by traders, it is quite possible to count on the fact that today they "wake up" and together with the reports on unemployment and average wages for September will work them out. Based on this, the probability that the pound will resume falling today is very high. However, any further "positive" news of a political nature can again cause the pound to rise. However, they are not something that cannot be predicted, it cannot even be imagined when the leader of any party or any other high-ranking official makes a "loud" statement.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar pair closed above the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2836), however, given the downward trend channel and its width, I do not expect a serious increase in the British currency. Perhaps the situation will change if the quotes perform a close over the downward channel, but so far this has not happened, I support the option of falling to the lower line of the channel, and possibly lower.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.

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12.11.2019
07:40 AM


Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 11/12/2019

Every day, I am convinced more and more that Alice in Wonderland is not a funny fairy tale, but a cruel description of English everyday life. Nigel Farage, who leads the Brexit party, hit his chest with a heel a few days ago and threatened to give a merciless fight to Boris Johnson, putting forward his candidates in all constituencies from which conservative candidates will be nominated. Given that their positions are largely similar in many respects, as conservatives favor an early withdrawal from the European Union, and the name of the Brexit party speaks for itself, it was clear to everyone that this would lead to a loss of votes of just conservatives, which gives Laborites a serious chance of victory. Therefore, yesterday, this same Nigel Farage said that he won't put the conservatives in the wheel and the candidates from his party will go to the polls only in those constituencies in which Tory's positions are already weak. It is clear that this seriously makes Boris Johnson's life much easier, as it increases the chances of conservatives to win. Although Nigel Farage himself called him a traitor to the Brexit case until recently and strangely enough, but such political change of shoes in a jump reassured many investors, as they greatly reduce the probability of all kinds of excesses in the form of a second referendum, which is inevitable in the event of a Labor victory. However, even if there will not be a referendum, then the strengthening of the positions of Jeremy Corbyn threatens with another delay of the process, which is a clear increase in uncertainty. As a result, the reversal in Mr. Farage's policies has led to an increase in the pound.

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Although, yesterday, nothing foreshadowed sharp fluctuations for the simple reason that in the United States, they raised toasts for their veterans at that time. In addition, when the UK macroeconomic data was published, market participants were calm. But the data themselves were extremely disappointing. For example, industrial production, which until recently had decreased by 1.8%, slowed down its decline not to 1.3%, but to 1.4%. Of course, the dynamics are clearly positive, but the result still remains negative. Despite that, things are much more fun with GDP, since a preliminary assessment of the economic growth rates for the third quarter showed their slowdown from 1.3% to 1.0% with a forecast of 1.1%. It is worth recalling that in the first quarter, the UK economy grew by 2.1%. That is, on the face of just a rapid decline in economic growth. It is so fast that it will not leave anyone indifferent.

GDP growth rate (UK):

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Speaking about today's day, market activity will clearly be higher. At least for the simple reason that today is a business day in the United States, which means that the number of bidders will increase significantly. Moreover, it is large players. However, with macroeconomic data today, things are not as good as yesterday. They are practically nonexistent. One can rely only on the data on the labor market of the United Kingdom, almost all of whose indicators should remain unchanged. The only thing that can change is the number of applications for unemployment benefits, which should decrease by 1.1 thousand. However, despite the generally positive nature of labor market forecasts, the pound has nowhere to grow, if only because of extremely weak GDP data and industry. Nevertheless, the market is still comprehending a new twist on the plot of the political drama unfolding in the UK. Lastly, do not exclude new sharp statements from certain politicians.

Number of applications for unemployment benefits (UK):

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The euro / dollar currency pair continues to fluctuate within the psychological level of 1.1000, actually forming a small pullback / stagnation. It is likely to assume that the fluctuation with an amplitude of 15/20 points still remains for some time, and the tactics of work remain the same, analysis of the point 1.1050 for purchases and 1.1000 for sales.

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After the recent rally, the pound/dollar currency pair found a resistance point in the region of 1.2880, where it entered the pullback stage. It is likely to assume that a characteristic overbought amid a jump is still present on the market, and fluctuations within 1.2845 / 1.2880 are still possible, where it is worth carefully monitoring price fixing points.

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12.11.2019
07:20 AM


GBPUSD: the UK economy escapes recession. the UK economy has avoided recession. Nigel Farage's rejection of Conservative

The British pound strengthened its position yesterday on the background of the growth of the UK economy, as well as after the news on the elections, which increased the likelihood of a Brexit deal later this year.

Even though uncertainty about Brexit and slowing global economic activity have a restraining effect on the growth of the British economy, the risk of lower interest rates by the Bank of England has significantly decreased after today's data that the UK economy resumed growth in the 3rd quarter of this year. Let me remind you that in the 2nd quarter, the economy contracted, which brought the country one step closer to a possible recession.

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According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the 3rd quarter of 2019, UK GDP grew by 0.3% compared to the 2nd quarter, and on an annualized basis, growth reached a level of 1.2%. It is important to note that the growth was facilitated not only by consumer spending but also by high foreign trade, which made it possible to offset the reduction in capital investments and inventories of companies.

Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2018, GDP grew by 1%.

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The deficit of foreign trade in goods of the UK in September rose to 12.5 billion pounds, compared with the revised value of 10.8 billion pounds in August. Economists had forecast a foreign trade deficit of 10.5 billion pounds. It is important to note that the larger increase in the deficit occurred with countries outside the EU, where in September this year, the deficit was 4 billion pounds.

Traders ignored the report on industrial production in the UK, which in September this year decreased by 0.3% and 1.4% compared to the same period in 2018. Although economists had forecast growth of 0.1% and contraction of only 1.1% respectively, it is clear that the overall weakness of the global economy and the problems with Brexit are putting some pressure on the industry sector.

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As noted above, after the data on economic growth, the reasons for lowering the key interest rate of the Bank of England was less. As recently as last week, traders were selling the pound amid fears that the British regulator could go for a further cut in interest rates due to uncertainty with Brexit and weak economic growth. The downward risk to the economy as a result of the hard Brexit has decreased, and the new fiscal stimulus measures promised by the government next year, and yesterday's economic data, reduced the likelihood of lowering rates.

Traders ignored the news that the rating agency Moody's downgraded the outlook for the UK's credit rating to negative from stable. The report indicated that the downgrade is since lawmakers cannot break the deadlock in negotiations on the planned exit from the EU.

However, major support for the British pound was provided by the news that the leader of the Brexit Party, Nigel Farage, refused to fight for the seats in the British Parliament claimed by the Conservative Party. Let me remind you that the general election will be held on December 12.

Farage's refusal will allow the Conservative Party to gain a majority with greater confidence. The leader of the Brexit party said that his candidates will only fight for places for which the Labor Party and the party of opponents of Brexit will fight. In his opinion, this will avoid another deadlock in the work of parliament and will benefit from the agreement on Brexit.

As for the current technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, there is progress in the growth of the pound, but more weight will be given to opinion polls, which can quickly "land" the pound. It is best to consider new long positions in the trading instrument after a downward correction in the area of large support levels of 1.2830 and 1.2795, from where a new lower border of the upward channel will be formed. The breakthrough of the resistance of 1.2880 will provide buyers of the pound with a more powerful growth in the area of 1.2910 and 1.2950.

AUDUSD

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The Australian dollar fell today against the US dollar after it became known that the consumer confidence index in Australia fell. According to ANZ and Roy Morgan, the index fell by 2.1% to 111.1 points. The agency noted that the sharp decline in confidence is due to the fall in retail sales, which was observed from July to September this year. The Australian business confidence index rose to 2 points in October and the Australian business conditions index rose to 3 points.

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12.11.2019
07:17 AM


Today, the focus of the market is Trump's speech at the New York Economic Club (we expect the EUR/USD pair and gold prices

On Monday, the euphoria in world markets regarding the early conclusion of a new trade agreement between the United States and China decreased slightly, which was facilitated by US President D. Trump once again.

It can be recalled that last week the news that not only would an agreement be reached on trade between the States and the PRC, but, most importantly, the message that the negotiating parties may decide not to raise previously announced customs duties, led to increased optimism and widespread demand on risky assets. On this wave, US major stock indexes tested the next highs, gold quotes broke out of the narrow range in which they were from the beginning of September, and the dollar received significant support.

However, on Monday, D. Trump in his favorite manner announced that duties might not be canceled. Moreover, the markets suddenly suddenly became concerned about the escalation of the crisis in Hong Kong, where the creeping anti-Chinese confrontation, supported by the States, has been going on for more than a month.

Thus, this led to a correction in the stock markets and a slight weakening of the US currency. Although today at Asian trading, the ICE dollar index is recovering and the yields on US Treasuries, which support the dollar, are growing again. Such positive dynamics is associated with the expectation of Trump's speech at the New York Economic Club today, where the country's trade policy will be discussed. It can be assumed that if the president does not put pressure on the "pedal" of trade contradictions between the States and the PRC, but, on the contrary, expresses confidence in the speedy conclusion of a new trade agreement, this will lead to a new wave of optimism in the markets for the resumption of growth in local stock indices and the exchange rate dollar and falling gold prices.

It is expected that this version of Trump's speech is most likely because he needs victories and positive news for the political struggle for the possibility of re-election as president. Back in the summer of this year, we believed that it was this factor that would force him to compromise with the PRC. The implementation of such a scenario, as mentioned above, will positively affect the dollar and the overall demand for risky assets.

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD pair implements a double top reversal pattern. We expect the pair to continue to fall to 1.1000, and then to 1.0985 after the price drops below the level of 1.1025.

Gold quotes are below the local minimum of October 1 of this year. We expect the continuation of decline in prices and we consider it possible to sell gold with local goals of 1444.20 and 1438.00.

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12.11.2019
07:16 AM


Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 12/11/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Chinese Internet giant Tencent intends to open a virtual bank based on Blockchain technology after the Hong Kong Securities Commission (SFC) has approved the new license.

Speaking on Friday at the Blockchain World Summit in Wuzhen, China, Yige Cai, Blockchain Director at Tencent, said the company's virtual bank has received a green light from SFC. According to the Chinese side of Sina Finance, the company will create a team supporting a banking platform based on Blockchain.

"Hong Kong's new regulations and the oversight of transactions related to digital assets confirm the importance of Blockchain technology and digital assets, which is good news for the entire industry," Cai said at his summit.

To date, SFC has granted licenses to virtual banks to 12 entities. The list includes Infinium Limited, a company owned by Tencent and ICBC, and two other Hong Kong institutional investors.

Tencent renamed Infinium to Fusion Bank in July after receiving a license in May. According to the Cai report, he did not reveal any further details about the virtual bank, while highlighting Tencent's existing Blockchain technology projects, including supply chain financing for McDonald's global restaurant chain.

Technical Market Overview:

The bearish pressure intensifies on the ETH/USD market after the local short-term trendline was put to the test as the bears started to move lower. A breakout below this line is now being tested from below and it is worth to notice that the breakout opens the road towards the technical support at the level of $172.91, which is the key technical support for bulls. It all depends now on how the breakout will be played: whether it was a fake or a genuine one.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $209.10

WR2 - $200.93

WR1 - $194.92

Weekly Pivot - $187.29

WS1 - $180.68

WS2 - $172.07

WS3 - $166.48

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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12.11.2019
07:10 AM


Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 12/11/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Daily volumes of Bitcoin futures contracts on the Bakkt digital asset platform have reached a new record, with 1,741 futures contracts on November 9. The new record volume coincides with a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin, below $ 9,000.

"Today we set a new daily record on 1756 Bitcoin Bakkt futures," the company writes.

A Twitter account dedicated to Bakkt forward volume data, Bakkt Volume Bot, also drew attention to development. In addition, the daily volume of 1,741 (about $ 15.5 million) is an increase of 109% compared to 834 contracts from the day before, with each contract being equivalent to one Bitcoin.

Physically billed monthly volumes of Bakkt Bitcoin trading have been steadily increasing since they were launched. In October, volumes reached a new record in history - 452 contracts were sold.

On October 26, Bakkt traded 1,183 Bitcoin futures contracts after registering a staggering 257% increase in 24 hours. It also coincided with a large price movement, through which Bitcoin exceeded the value of $ 10,000.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of $8,533 after the bears had broken below the key short-term technical support and the lower boundary of the narrow horizontal trading zone located at the level of $8,836. The momentum is still negative, so the further spike down might happen soon. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,474 and $8,048. Please notice the 61% Fibonacci retracement level is very close now as it is located at the level of $8,396.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,032

WR2 - $9,933

WR1 - $9,413

Weekly Pivot - $9,012

WS1 - $8,510

WS2 - $8,085

WS3 - $7,592

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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12.11.2019
07:05 AM


Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 11/12/2019 and trading recommendation

Although everything indicated that the day would be extremely calm and quiet, it was not without the favorite British farce. Brexit, or rather early parliamentary elections, is back on the agenda. Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit party, who ridiculed Boris Johnson and his version of the divorce agreement last week, suddenly announced that he would not interfere with the conservatives. The fact is that Farage initially threatened to nominate his candidates in all constituencies, which was supposed to take away the votes from just the candidates from the conservative party, and play into the hands of the Labor Party. Now, the Brexit party will not interfere with the Conservatives under their feet, and will only nominate candidates in those districts where the positions of the Conservatives are already weak. Essentially, this predicts Boris Johnson's victory, which reduces uncertainty around Brexit itself, as it suggests that there will not be a radical change of course, like a second referendum or something else from this series. Thus, it is not surprising that despite the absence of the majority of traders on the market, the pound was able to demonstrate good growth.

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At the same time, as expected, the market completely ignored the macroeconomic statistics, which were abandoned yesterday. Which, among other things, turned out to be worse than forecasts. Thus, preliminary data on UK GDP for the third quarter showed a slowdown in economic growth from 1.3% not to 1.1%, but to 1.0%. Due to this, the British economy is really slowing down really fast. In addition, industrial production, which until recently decreased by 1.8%, slowed down its decline not to 1.3%, but to 1.4%. The dynamics are certainly encouraging, but it still does not get more fun from this.

UK GDP growth rate:

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Moreover, although the United States is a business day today, no macroeconomic data is published either in America or in Europe. Meanwhile, Britain remains the focus of attention. At least for the reason that the UK publishes labor market data. Another thing is that all indicators should remain unchanged, with the exception of the number of applications for unemployment benefits, which could be reduced by 1.1 thousand. And of course, there is the possibility of new sharp steps from British politicians, which can have even a much greater impact.

Applications for unemployment benefits (UK):

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The GBP/USD pair managed to show considerable activity over the past day, forming a rebound from the range level of 1.2770. A surge of about 115 points led to the quotation returning to the 1.2880 area, where, against the background of local overbought, it slowed down, forming a small pullback followed by a stop. In fact, the current surge in prices has not brought anyone radical; the movement is still looped within two levels. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see that the fluctuation is expressed in a flat of 1.2770 / 1.3000, which is preserved to this day, and the quotation has worked out its lower border once again.

It is likely to assume that the first thing we will encounter is a local overbought, which temporarily puts pressure on buyers, giving out the scope of the fluctuation 1.2845 / 1.2890. The next step will determine the fixation points, relative to the values of 1.2840 / 1.2895.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions in the case of price fixing higher than 1.2895.

- We consider short positions in the case of a clear fixation of the price below 1.2840.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that due to a surge in prices, indicators unanimously turned upward, which can express as local interest.

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12.11.2019
07:03 AM


Trading plan for EUR/USD for November 12, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair consolidated for now with one more leg seen on the lower side towards at least 1.1000 before the rally could resume. Please note that prices are around its first fibonacci convergence close to 1.1035 levels at this point of writing. A drop below 1.0995 could test the next fibonacci convergence seen around 1.0940/50 levels before bulls regain control. The latest resistance turned into support coming in around 1.0990/1.1000 levels, so we can expect a termination of the corrective drop there. Please note that the boundary being worked upon is between 1.0879 and 1.1180 levels and a fibonacci 0.618 retracement at 1.0995 levels would be seen as the greenlight for further bullish setup. At the same time, please note that the correction may continue until 1.0940 levels as well, which is the 0.786 retracement. Only a consistent drop below 1.0940 could pose a threat to the above bullish setup. From the trading point of view, it is still a safe strategy to buy on dips.

Trading plan:

Long against 1.0879, buy more towards 1.1000 levels, target is above 1.1500.

Good luck!

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12.11.2019
07:02 AM


Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 12/11/2019

Technical Market Overview:

Despite the fact, that the technical support located at the level of 1.2786 was slightly broken as the local low was made at the level of 1.2769, the GBP/USD market has bounced clearly towards the middle of the range. Nevertheless, the momentum is still rather weak and just slightly positive despite the oversold conditions, so the next leg will likely be down again. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2705 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2939.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3033

WR2 - 1.2987

WR1 - 1.2853

Weekly Pivot - 1.2816

WS1 - 1.2681

WS2 - 1.2633

WS3 - 1.2516

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.3000 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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12.11.2019
06:57 AM


Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 12/11/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair broke below the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.1029 and made a new local low at the level of 1.1016 There is a slight bounce from this level as the bulls are trying to defend it, but the momentum remains weak and negative despite the oversold market conditions at the H4 timeframe chart, so the bears are now in full control of the market. The next target is seen at the level of 1.0994 which is 61% of the Fibonacci retracement. Please notice, the level of 1.0999 is the key short-term technical support for the price as well, so some kind of a bounce should be expected from this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1256

WR2 - 1.1211

WR1 - 1.1097

Weekly Pivot - 1.1053

WS1 - 1.0934

WS2 - 1.0895

WS3 - 1.0778

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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