rnrnrnrnrnrnForex | Online Forex Trading | Currency Trading | Forex Broker
Client Cabinet

Cotații Forex OnLine

<a href="https://www.instaforex.com/">InstaForex portal</a>
<a href="https://www.instaforex.com/">Forex Romania</a>
<a href="http://www.instaforex.com/?x=MTL">Forex Romania</a>

Instrumente Tranzacționare FOREX

Analize Forex

21.02.2019
02:54 PM


The cost of oil peaked again in the last three months

By the end of Wednesday's trading on February 20, the price of Brent crude oil updated its three-month high, reaching $ 67.37 a barrel. According to experts, support for oil prices was largely due to the uncertainty about Brexit.

a79RSotcgsb5ZweWXJg2lnSsjKVtt8vXHC3w7u5o

Recall that on March 29 of this year, the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union. However, the situation around Brexit is full of contradictions in connection with analysts who advise taking into account the possibility of a tough development of events. At the same time, the UK is not ready to extend the free trade agreement with Japan and South Korea until it leaves the EU. Note that these Asian countries annually purchase British exports of 18.6 billion pounds. The UK Commerce Minister assured the leadership of these countries that the relevant agreements would be ready for signing the day after Brexit.

The current situation is supporting black gold prices, experts say. For example, the oil trader Trafigura purchased Brent oil from Vitol for delivery in March with a premium of 40 cents. This markup is considered the maximum for the last four months. When Equinor was selling oil at a premium of 45 cents, the above was only the value of the October deal. According to experts, the uncertainty regarding Brexit can lead to disruptions in the supply of black gold, so oil traders tend to minimize possible risks.

Futures for Brent crude oil rose more than 1% to $ 67.15 a barrel for April delivery. Since the beginning of this year, the North Sea grade of raw materials has risen in price by 24.8%. The cost of WTI light crude oil increased by 1.62%, to $ 57 per barrel.

SdTuM6v5z3mycQk_570fgQmh7eUZwMDD6JAxAMSl

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
02:38 PM


GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 20. Pound buyers are building a side channel for continued growth

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

As long as trading is above the resistance of 1.3037, the demand for the British pound will continue. However, the bulls need a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3089, which may coincide with a bad report on the American economy, which will lead to a new wave of GBP/USD growth to highs in the 1.3152 and 1.3214 area, where I recommend taking profits. In the case that the pair returns below the support level of 1.3037, it is best to consider new long positions to rebound from a minimum of 1.2984.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

For the bears to resume the downward correction, a bad news on Brexit or a good report on the state of the American economy is needed. Forming a false breakdown and returning below the resistance level 1.3089 will be the first signal to open short positions in the pound in order to reduce and consolidate below support 1.3037, which will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to a test of the minimum of 1.2984, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a pound rise in the second half of the day above the resistance of 1.3089, it is best to consider new short positions after updating the highs of 1.3152 and 1.3214.

More in the video forecast for February 21

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains in the region of 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.3090 may lead to a new wave of pound growth.

2Nes3kJmDM4zUNWSRJ0iULj5LWxp8P30IGYlEjEq

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
02:36 PM


EUR / USD plan for the American session on February 21. Demand for the euro remains even despite the bad data for the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

After a weak report on PMI index activity in the eurozone, euro buyers failed to rise higher than the resistance of 1.1355 but the demand remains. In the afternoon, all attention will be focused on data of the US economy but the bulls still need to breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1355, which will lead to a larger upward correction already in the area of maximum 1.1394 and 1.1432, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a EUR/USD decline, long positions can be opened on the condition that a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1319 or on a rebound from the minimum of 1.1279.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Today, euro sellers formed a false breakdown, which I drew attention in the morning forecast. As long as trading will be below 1.1355 resistance, we can count on a further EUR/USD decline to the support area of 1.1319, where I recommend taking profits. In case of consolidation below this level, the pressure on the EUR/USD pair may increase significantly, which will return the pair to the area of the minimum at 1.1279. With a scenario of further upward correction and a break of 1.1355, which can happen after the publication of weak data in the US, you can sell the euro to rebound from a maximum of 1.1394 and 1.1432.

More in the video forecast for February 21

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains in the region of 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction, growth will be limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1366. However, a breakthrough of this level will be a good signal to buy.

PCc6VKVrHh6_1vh-3g7nARMHk9Lnf6BERuAwz8vl

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
02:25 PM


How the dollar reacted to the Fed's protocols and what has changed in the regulator's strategy?

While the dollar waits for the publication of the Fed's minutes, it went up again and the reason for this was more than serious. The minutes of the Fed revived expectations of a possible rate hike this year. In the meantime, the dollar rose slightly against the yen and reduced losses against the euro after the Fed said in the minutes of the last meeting that the US economy. The labor market remained strong, which strengthened the market's opinion about a possible increase in the interest rate. Recall that the Fed last month took the markets by surprise with their dovish comments, which looked like a signal that the regulator would stop the campaign to raise interest rates.

NYcb10P9AzQznvJqUEysox7yipkeK7XLQ3fbUQ9q

Yet, the tone of the Fed has changed now. The dollar continued to grow, as the protocols seemed to reassure market participants, who remained confident that the Fed would raise rates this year. However, if you analyze the protocols in more detail, it becomes clear that they are not generally very different from the January speeches. Hence, it is too early to draw any conclusions that the Fed can easily change its strategy. We can say with confidence only one thing: the current attention of the market will return to the problems of the trade conflict. Most likely, the timing of the introduction of new tariffs will be extended and this may mean that Europe and Japan may face problems. Remember, US President Donald Trump said that the United States will impose tariffs on imports of European cars if they can not conclude a trade deal with the European Union.

zCGOYFPWtRtATNClwtidOZfrLq4zs7OkzPonrFOt

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
01:51 PM


Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 21, 2019

analytics5c6eac5eda6dc.png

On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Shortly after, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) then 1.2820-1.2800 where (50% Fibonacci level) is roughly located.

Last week, lack of bullish demand was demonstrated around 1.2920 until Friday when significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 (Fibonacci 50% level) resulting in a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.

This initiated the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Hence, remaining bullish target is projected towards 1.3155, 1.3200 and 1.3240.

On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair currently has a significant demand zone located around (1.2960-1.2925) to be watched for BUY entries.

Bullish persistence above 1.2960 (newly-established demand zone) remains mandatory so that the current bullish movement can pursue towards the mentioned bullish targets. Any bearish breakdown below which invalidates the whole bullish scenario for the short term.

Trade Recommendations :

Any bearish pullback towards the depicted H4 demand zone (1.2960-1.2925) should be watched for a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.2890. T/P levels to be located around 1.3040, 1.3155 and 1.3235.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
01:51 PM


Simplified Wave Analysis: Review of GOLD for the week of February 21

Large timeframe:

Since September last year, gold quotations are moving up. The wave completes a complex correctional model of weekly timeframe. The preliminary target zone is approaching the lower boundary.

Small timeframe:

Since the end of January, a descending trend has formed on the gold chart. In the wave of the main trend, this is a correction that has the wrong appearance. From the current price level, you can expect a short-term decline, after which the bullish wave will continue.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming days, price movements are expected mainly in the lateral plane. Flat mood can last the whole week and too early for sales. It is recommended to wait for the completion of the correction and look for signals to buy the instrument.

VMj2b_0YFUn85SEuXolh5QWA9RN3LTvSnteTvrUj

Resistance zones:

- 1375.0 / 1380.0

Support areas:

- 1310.0 / 1305.0

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). Three consecutive graphs are used for analysis. Each of these analyzes the last incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure and the dotted exhibits the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
01:49 PM


Simplified Wave Analysis: review of EUR / JPY pair for the week of February 21

Large timeframe:

The older timeframe cross shows a downward wave, which set the course of the price trend the whole year of 2018 and reached a strong level of support.

Small Timeframe:

The rising wave of January 3 has a strong reversal potential. On a larger scale, the plot will eventually form a wave equivalent to the previous decline. Before the price rushes up, a downward rollback is likely to happen.

KORgW2pn1_-YU-lEU6FSf_14i9J62u4q74tkUzVg

Forecast and recommendations:

On the chart of the instrument, the preparations in continuing the upward course are completed. The flat phase of the movement may end this month while sales are not recommended. The focus is on finding signals to enter long trades. Resistance zones:

- 125.90 / 126.40

- 128.10 / 128.60

Support areas:

- 124.90 / 124.40

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). Three consecutive graphs are used for analysis. Each of these analyzes the last incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure and the dotted exhibits the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
01:20 PM


February 21, 2019: EUR/USD is demonstrating weak bullish recovery around the lower limit of its channel.

analytics5c6ea3677f3e0.png

Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

The EUR/USD pair is demonstrating weak bullish recovery around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270) with early signs of bearish reversal probability (Yesterday's bearish hammer daily candlestick).

A bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A counter-trend BUY entry was already suggested near the price level (1.1285) (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel). T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420 while S/L should be advanced to entry level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
11:43 AM


The Australian dollar and the British pound are distinguished by a synchronous fall

analytics5c6e722ee9c82.jpg

The Australian dollar is losing value again, experiencing a very volatile session. Recall that at the beginning of the session, the Australian rose to a two-week high of 0.7207 dollars, which was helped by strong employment data in January. However, it failed to linger at the summit and quickly lost altitude. Traders attributed the fall to Westpac's lower-interest rate predictions. At the same time, the currency suffered even more after the customs in the northern Chinese port of Dalian banned the import of coal from Australia. The ban on the import of coal from Australia, which has been in force since the beginning of February, extends to large ports and other parts of China, which increases the delivery time for Australian coal to at least 40 days. In addition, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Philip Low, in early February, forced the "Australian" to fall, backing away from the long-standing strategy of the Central Bank, stating that the next step could be to lower interest rates. It will be difficult for the Australian dollar to grow after the RBA seems to have taken the "pigeon" position.

analytics5c6e724e0fe1d.jpg

The New Zealand dollar, as they say , went to the trailer and suffered collateral damage from the fall of the Australian counterpart. The pound fell 0.15 percent to 1.3031 dollars, rolling away from the almost three-week high of 1.3109 dollars which was reached the day before. Sterling was defeated after three lawmakers deserted British Prime Minister Theresa May from the ranks of the ruling conservative party, which could undermine her efforts at Brexit. The pound is also under pressure from the Fitch Ratings rating agency, which stated that it could downgrade the UK credit rating to "AA", based on growing uncertainty over Brexit.

analytics5c6e7265d2c3a.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
11:31 AM


Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 21, 2019

analytics5c6e8bdeea229.png

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
11:31 AM


Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 21, 2019

analytics5c6e8bdeea229.png

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
11:25 AM


BITCOIN Analysis for February 21, 2019

Bitcoin moved lower after rejecting off the $4,000 area with a daily close as expected. Recent formation of Bearish Divergence at the price area of $4,000 provided evidence of the recent dip in the market which is likely to be viewed as retracement for a further upward move. BTC advance is currently subdued by the Kumo Cloud as support, while dynamic levels such as 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line are neutral above the current price line.

Though Bitcoin is losing its shine, it still maintains demand among crypto investors that is being reflected in the chart. The BTC rally starting off the $3,500-600 showcases the bullish market sentiment which will push the price higher after a retracement and downward corrections. As the price remains above $3,500-600 with a daily close above $4,000, be ready for further bullish pressure with a target towards $4,250 and later towards $4,500.

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL ASPECT: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

POSSIBILITIES: STRONG BULLISH ABOVE $4,000

analytics5c6e88808d592.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
11:07 AM


Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for February 21, 2019

BREXIT being still uncertain is leading to indecision between the traders worldwide whereas the UK economy is currently being questioned. A Deal Brexit or No Deal Brexit will have different impact on the overall UK economy as well as global economy.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is currently looking forward to find a way out of Brexit impasse and mounting evidence that an agreement is within reach. Though recent meeting between May and European Commission President Juncker had a joint statement about the meeting being constructive but not such confidence is yet seen in the markets. The optimism did manage to push GBP higher than USD in the process but sustaining it further with a long-term view is still very much uncertain. Recently, Fitch stated that a No Deal Brexit is going to disrupt UK economic and trade prospect which may lead to a great downfall of the economy in no time.

Today UK Public Sector Net Borrowing report was published with positive outcome of decrease to -15.8B from the previous figure of 2.1B which was expected to be at -11.1B. Though Average Earning Index was recently published unchanged at 3.4% which was expected to increase to 3.5% and Claimant Count Change report was published with decrease to 14.2k from the previous figure of 20.2k which could not meet the expected figure of 12.3k did not quite affect the overall gains of the GBP in the process.

On the USD side, according to the minutes of the January policy meeting, the Fed advocates for a patient approach to rate hikes and also flags the end of balance sheet runoff. During the meeting, the policymakers did not express any commitments. As a result, the market is hesitant about trading preferences that makes USD/JPY trade without a clear-cut trend. According to San Francisco FED President Mary Daly, the US economy is facing headwinds. In this context, the Federal Reserve should align its balance sheet policy with the unchanged approach to interest rates. Higher downward pressure, including a slowdown in the global economy, tighter financial conditions, and rising uncertainty over international trade, assures the US central bank to keep rates steady this year.

Today US Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published. Durable goods orders ex transportation are likely to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.4%, Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase to 1.6% from the previous value of 0.7%. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to decrease to 14.1 from the previous figure of 17.0 and Unemployment Claims are expected to decrease to 228k from the previous figure of 239k.

At present, the fate of GBP is still very much uncertain whereas USD outlook is quite stable and more favorable. Though certain weak economic reports on the USD have been published recently, market sentiment on GBP is uncertain ahead of BREXIT. Meanhwile, investors are betting on USD strength in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price recently was quite indecisive while residing above 1.30 area with a daily close that will reinforce bearish pressure before the price climbs higher towards 1.3200-1.3350 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.30 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5c6e8608687e2.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
11:01 AM


Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 21, 2019

analytics5c6e84e518931.png

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair below around the weekly pivot point (1.1393). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1393 to the bottom around 1.1335. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1393 followed by 1.1426, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1335. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1393. So it will be good to sell at 1.1393 with the first target of 1.1335. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1294. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1254 level. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1393 and 1.1254 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1393 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1393 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1393, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1453.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
10:29 AM


Bitcoin analysis for February 21, 2019

analytics5c6e7d3f5b820.png

BTC has been trading upwards and the level of $4.100. Anyway, we found the strong reaction from sellers from the resistance, which is a sign that buying looks risky. We also found the breakout of the intraday support at $3.970, which is another sign of weakness. Supports are seen at the price of $3.805 and at $3.610.

Yellow rectangle – $4.045 (Resistance)

Yellow rectangle - $3.970 (Resistance)

Red rectangle - $3.805 (Support)

Red rectangle - $3.610 (Support)

Trading recommendation: We exited our long position on BTC and we started to sell from $3.962 with stop at $4.100. Targets are set at the price of $3.805 and $3.610.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
10:20 AM


Trading plan for 02/21/2019

The content of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations fully coincided with the expectations of traders who, before publication, sold the dollar. As expected, the Federal Reserve System tried to exclude direct indications of the possibility of mitigating the parameters of monetary policy from the text of the protocol. However, the text of the protocol states that members of the Committee should be flexible in terms of developing decisions on the refinancing rate. Therefore, it becomes obvious.

analytics5c6e513c019d8.png

However, the next meeting of Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker again ended in nothing. The blood oaths about the complete mutual understanding of the parties and moving in the right direction, uttered for the umpteenth time, still seem to be able to influence the tender public. After all, this only explains the constant growth of the pound during such meetings, caused by the belief that Brexit will run smoothly and smoothly.

analytics5c6e5155271f3.png

Beginning today, the publication of preliminary data on business activity indices in Europe. If in the service sector it should grow from 51.2 to 51.4, then in industry it is expected to decline from 50.5 to 50.3. As a result, the composite index of business activity is likely to grow from 51.0 to 51.1. Almost simultaneously with preliminary data on indices of business activity in Europe, there are data on borrowing of the public sector in the UK, which could be reduced by 11.1 billion pounds. In the previous month, data was increased by 2.1 billion pounds. So, the expectations in the Old World are to some extent quite good and can be the reason for a slight strengthening of a single European currency and pound. However, most interesting things will happen in the late afternoon after a whole block of American statistics begins to be published. The first will be published data on applications for unemployment benefits, the total number of which should be reduced by 43 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications may be reduced by 10 thousand, and repeated ones by 33 thousand. Also, orders for durable goods may increase by 1, 7%. In addition to all this, housing sales in the secondary market are likely to increase by 0.8% after a 6.4% decline in the previous month. However, questions raise forecasts based on a preliminary assessment of business activity indices. After all, if the business activity index in the service sector can increase from 54.2 to 54.3, and in the manufacturing sector it should decrease from 54.9 to 54.7, then it is not entirely clear why the composite index of business activity is expected to grow from 54.4 to 55.1. Of course, he must grow, but not so much.

The euro / dollar currency pair, after a brief upward move, reached a value of 1.1370. This reflects accumulations in earlier periods. It is likely to assume that the current stagnation of 1.1325 / 1.1370 will result in a rollback to 1.1315 / 1.1300.

analytics5c6e5170413a8.png

After the impulse move, the currency pair pound / dollar reached a value of 1.3000, after which we saw a phase of stagnation-pullback. It is likely to assume that the quotation will approach the previously passed level of 1.3000, where it will continue the amplitude wagging near it.

analytics5c6e517f79c82.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
10:18 AM


Analysis of Gold for February 21, 2019

analytics5c6e7a86b7710.png

The Gold market went into the overbought condition at the price of $1.346.00, which is a sign that buying looks risky. In our view, downward correction is the potential scenario to happen on Gold. Support is seen at the price of $1.325.00 and again at $1.302.00. Key short-term resistance is set at $1.346.00.

Trading recommendation: We exited our long position on Gold on the breakeven and now we are neutral to bearish.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
10:03 AM


EUR/USD analysis for February 21, 2019

analytics5c6e7751e6e6d.png

Short-term important resistance at 1.1370 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%) held successfully, which is a sign that buying EUR/USD at this stage looks risky. In our opinion, EUR/USD completed the upward correction (expanded flat ABC), which is a sign that sellers may continue with new selling. There is also a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. Breakout of the intraday support level at 1.1318 would confirm downward movement.

R3: 1.1372

R2: 1.1396

R1: 1.1420

Pivot: 1.1348

S1: 1.1324

S2: 1.1300

S3: 1.1275

Trading recommendation: We are shot EUR from 1.1327 with stop placed at 1.1375. Profit target is set at the price of 1.1235.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
09:10 AM


EUR / USD. Market underestimated Fed pigeon protocol

The Fed's protocol was published yesterday. Despite its pigeon character, the protocol only had little impact on the dynamics of dollar pairs. First, market participants were ready for pessimistic assessments by the regulator. The previous speeches of the Fed representatives prepared the ground for an adequate perception of soft rhetoric. Second, the Federal Reserve noted during its January meeting that the US economy is in good condition, and the slowdown in monetary policy tightening is primarily due to uncertainty about future prospects, where the main risks come from China and Europe.

analytics5c6e65d045d2e.jpg

As a result of this release, the euro / dollar pair showed, at first glance, an inadequate reaction - instead of the expected growth, the price dropped to the base of the 13th figure. In my opinion, the southern price pullback is quite understandable and justified. The market was too "screwed up" by the fact that the Fed takes a too soft position - to the extent that it will announce the end of the rate-raising cycle with direct text. But nothing extraordinary happened, the regulator reflected the main points of the January meeting, specifying only its position in a more detailed form. As a result, the market followed the rule "buy on rumors, sell on facts", which was the reason for the "inadequate" behavior of the couple.

In fact, the Fed gave no reason to strengthen the dollar. By and large, the regulator recognized that the rate has already reached the lower limit of the neutral level: according to some fed members, raising rates may be necessary only if inflation exceeds basic forecasts. However, most of them stated that the inflationary pressure is weakening, and this year's trend may continue. Some members of the Committee believe that the core inflation will be below the target of two percent for a long time, and this fact will be the main reason for the wait-and-see approach to the parameters of monetary policy.

Such a formulation is quite alarming for dollar bulls. It is worth recalling here that the US consumer price index in annual terms moved slowly since November of last year, having gone from 2.5% to 1.6% in January. On a monthly basis, the indicator for three months ranges from -0.1% to zero. Core inflation is also not happy with success: since November 2018, it has been going out at the same level — 0.2% (m / m) and 2.2% (g / g). A disturbing factor is the fact that the growth in the level of wages in January has significantly decreased - to 0.1%. Such dynamics can negatively affect inflationary growth, taking into account all other constraining circumstances (in particular, the volume of retail sales in the USA is decreasing at the maximum rate over the last nine years).

analytics5c6e65bfc9dc3.jpg

In other words, in the foreseeable future , one should not expect any inflationary breakthrough. At best, key indicators will fluctuate in the area of current levels. This means that the Fed will not change the parameters of monetary policy over the next six months. According to a number of experts, the regulator will have to wait until 2020. If the situation won't not change for any better next year, it may even reduce the rate by 25-50 basis points. In my opinion, it is still too early to talk about such a scenario. But now, it can be said with confidence that until September of this year; one should not expect decisive action from the Fed.

In addition to the prospects for monetary policy , the members of the Federal Reverse raised another burning issue. We are talking about reducing the rate of folding the balance of the Fed. According to the officials, the volume of reserves may approach its "adequate level" this year. However, no decisions were made on this matter. The regulator said that at one of its subsequent meetings, the Central Bank will announce plans to stop the process of reducing the size of the balance.

Thus, yesterday, the market clearly underestimated the significance of the published protocol. His main thesis suggests that the rate will be increased only in exceptional cases - for example, if inflation rushes sharply upwards. However, there are no prerequisites for this; therefore, a rather obvious conclusion is being made that for many months (and possibly by the end of the year), the Fed will take a wait-and-see attitude.

analytics5c6e65a97b605.jpg

From the point of view of technology, the situation has hardly changed since yesterday. The EUR / USD bulls were able to hold above 1.1305 (Tenkan-sen line) and did not lose their growth potential. Now, their task is to overcome the resistance level of 1.1390 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). Bears of the pair still need to fix below 1.1270 - in this case, the Ichimoku indicator will form a bearish Parade of Lines signal, and the price itself will be between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe. And although such a deep southern pullback is not excluded, the priority so far remains behind the northern movement, given the prevailing fundamental picture of the pair.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
08:41 AM


The Fed can not decide on the rate of interest rates. Forex Market Forecast for February 21

Signals for the EUR / USD pair:

A Breakout on the level of 1.1355 will lead to the growth of the euro in the area of 1.1394 and 1.1432.

However, a breakthrough on1.1319 will lead to sales of the euro in the area of 1.1279 and 1.1235.

Signals for the GBP / USD pair:

A Breakout on the level of 1.3058 will lead to growth of the pound in the area of 1.3106 and 1.3159.

On the other hand, a breakthrough on 1.3025 will lead to sales of the pound in the area of 1.2984 and 1.2916.

Fundamental data:

  • Composite PMI index of Germany
  • Eurozone composite PMI index
  • Change in orders for durable goods in the US
  • Unemployment benefits in the US
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
08:18 AM


US interest rate: the Fed's patient attitude to interest rates will help the American economy

All traders attention was focused yesterday on the publication of the Federal Reserve System protocols from the meeting, which was held in January of this year.

Before the release of the report, the European currency slightly strengthened its position against the US dollar after good data on consumer confidence in the eurozone, which has grown, but this did not help the bulls to build a larger upward trend.

According to yesterday's report, the preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index rose slightly in February of this year to -7.4 points against -7.9 in January. In general, the slowdown in the European economy, trade wars, and uncertainty with Brexit affect consumers' views in the future.

A-6gtWCYibY6KMJJFguqCMomHuD4HYgGmQ5306gE

As noted above, all attention was focused on data from the Fed. According to the protocols, leaders called for patience in determining the future rate of interest rates, stating that a patient and flexible approach to monetary policy is now appropriate.

It should be noted that keeping rates unchanged at this stage does not create particular risks, and can even help the economy return to the growth rates observed at the beginning of last year.

A number of Fed representatives noted that after the December interest rate hike, future prospects became more uncertain. The committee is confident that now it is necessary to see more positive data, as well as analyze the influence of the shutdown before making a decision on the rate of rates. This suggests that future monetary policy in the short term will depend on incoming data.

As for the plan to reduce the balance, almost all managers expect its completion this year. However, it is worth noting that the leadership of the Fed already has thoughts of reinvesting income from mortgage-backed securities into treasury bonds after the balance reduction process has been completed.

The minutes also say that the growth of the US economy has become more moderate since the end of last year, and a number of executives have additionally noted an increase in downside risks.

All this once again confirms the fact that the Fed will not be in a hurry to raise rates this year, and so far the maximum that can be expected is one increase in the fall.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not changed at all compared to yesterday's forecast. Further growth will directly depend on the resistance level of 1.1355. In case of its breakthrough, the upward trend in EURUSD will resume, which will lead the trading instrument to the highs of 1.1400 and 1.1440. In the case of a downward correction, and as we can see on the chart, before each new wave of euro growth there is a sharp depreciation, large levels of support are viewed in the 1.1315 and 1.1280 ranges.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
07:58 AM


Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 21. The dollar is preparing for new growth, despite the Fed minutes.

EWk1PhnFp3H2gHqxwnii3RUbJVnyFKOho6UXPFvP

Wave counting analysis:

On Wednesday, February 20, trading ended for EUR / USD with a final decline of several bp. The attempt to break through the level of 23.6% on the older Fibonacci grid was unsuccessful. This indicates the pair's readiness to decline and, accordingly, to build a new downward wave. If this is indeed the case, then from the current positions the instrument, it may rush further down as part of building the expected wave 5 of the downward trend segment, thus, assumes the formation of a triangle. If the pair finds the strength to execute a breakthrough level of 23.6%, the euro will be able to grow to the level of 61.8% on the small Fibonacci grid. Yesterday's Fed minutes gave food for thought to traders about the possible completion of sales of assets on the balance sheet in 2019. However, there was no negative impact on the pair.

Sales targets:

1.1228 - 0.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1356 - 23.6% Fibonacci

1.1408 - 61.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair is supposedly nearing completion of wave 4 construction. Thus, if the level of 23.6% holds, then I recommend selling the pair to build wave 5 of the downtrend trend with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.1228 and 1.1215. Small purchases of the pair can be made if another attempt at a breakthrough of 23.6% is successful.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
07:47 AM


Wave analysis of GBP / USD for February 21. Wave 2 is complete, is the pound ready to fall?

OTe38_NXXBz_E91XTMHIS-eXKJMVgYHNUguqgRK4

Wave counting analysis:

On February 20, the GBP / USD pair lost about 20 bp and did not reach the level of 76.4% Fibonacci which is literally a few bp away. Thus, there are reasons for assuming that wave 2 of the descending trend section has completed its construction, and the pair is ready to go on to build impulse wave 3. If this is true, then the decline will start today or tomorrow. Meanwhile, the meeting of Jean-Claude Juncker with Theresa May did not make any progress, despite the assurances of the parties in its presence. The news background remains uniquely on the dollar side. Additionally, no fundamentally new decisions on Brexit have been made.

Shopping goals:

1.3109 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2619 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a downward wave. Thus, now, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.2826 and 1.2734, which equates to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the level of 76.4% on the small Fibonacci grid will lead to the conclusion that the current wave pattern is more complicated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
07:46 AM


GBP / USD. February 21st. The trading system. "Regression Channels". "Stunning" progress in the negotiations

4-hour timeframe

jQ9bnmRUyzEa0NK5d76QBWqPxI5zz2cB_z69jyYr

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 76.9031

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday, February 21, almost completely repeated the movements of the EUR / USD currency pair. The response to the Fed protocol was similar. However, it follows from this that there was no reaction at all to the meeting of Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May in Brussels. After the talks, May and Juncker made a statement during which the British Prime Minister announced progress in the negotiations. The progress that May had in mind is that the parties have agreed to work on the controversial points "at a pace" since there is not much time left. Very strange progress, given the fact that there is less than a month and a half before Brexit. No other information was voiced, that is, it can be assumed that there is no progress in the negotiations on the most fundamental issue of the Northern Irish border. No important macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Great Britain on Thursday, and in the States today there will be a report on durable goods orders and preliminary values of business indexes in various areas of Markit. We believe that the pound sterling has already exhausted its growth potential with more than one and is ready for a new downtrend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3031

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2970

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3092

R3 - 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD has begun a round of downward correction. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the completion of this correction (if it does not grow into a downward movement) and open new long positions with a target of 1.3123.

Short positions will again become relevant after the price is fixed back below the moving average line. The targets, in this case, will be the levels 1.2848 and 1.2817.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii
21.02.2019
07:46 AM


EUR / USD. February 21st. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Fed can stop reducing its own balance

4-hour timeframe

B6oFSs9fOMew-jfW471xyw-nUmh_cTZjHyKbo55f

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 54.6526

The EUR / USD currency pair on the eve of the publication of the Fed's protocol on February 20 made a slight jerk up but returned to a moving average line after this event. As we expected, there was nothing important in the protocol. In short, the Fed may continue to raise rates this year, if, for example, inflation, which is now in a "muffled" state, will appreciate the acceleration. At the same time, monetary tightening is not possible. Further, many Fed members are confident that in the near future, they should provide a plan for the completion of the reduction of the balance of the Fed. The main idea is not to take any rash steps, but to respond to the economic situation. There is no talk about rate cuts. The main threat for 2019 lies in the plane of trade relations with Europe and China. Thus, despite a small surge of emotions yesterday, it cannot be said that the market reaction was strong - the volatility remained at the same low level. From a technical point of view, the indicator Heikin Ashi began to paint the bars blue, which signals a correction. Therefore, the weak upward trend in the instrument is maintained. Today in the European Union, preliminary values of indices of business activity in various fields will be published.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has begun to adjust. Therefore, it is recommended to open long positions after turning the Heikin Ashi indicator to the top with the target of 1.1414. There is a possibility of the pair returning to the area below the moving average.

Sell positions are recommended to open after the price is fixed back below the moving average line. In this case, the tendency of the instrument to change to downward, and the first target will be 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Vezi detalii