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24.03.2017
04:05 PM


Daily Forex Technical Analysis | EUR/JPY | 24th March 2017

We take a nice detailed look at EUR/JPY and see if there are any trading opportunities for us to make some juicy pips!

We combine the art of Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci extensions, Support & Resistance along with Stochastic and the RSI to determine the best entry, stop loss and profit targets.

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24.03.2017
03:53 PM


Daily Video Technical Analysis | AUD/USD | 24th March 2017

We take a nice detailed look at AUD/USD and see if there are any trading opportunities for us to make some juicy pips!

We combine the art of Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci extensions, Support & Resistance along with Stochastic and RSI to determine the best entry, stop loss and profit targets.

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24.03.2017
03:16 PM


NZD/USD is dropping nicely, remain bearish

The price continues to drop nicely from our selling area as expected and is seeing a nice bearish reaction below 0.7065 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension) where we expect a drop to at least 0.6968 support (Fibonacci retracement, recent swing low support). We can see that the price has made a bearish exit in a similar fashion to Stochastic which gives us stronger conviction of a drop from here.

Stochastic (21,5,3) sees major resistance at 95% and has bearish divergence versus the price which signals a strong drop is impending. It has also made a reaction off its bearish pullback with good downside potential.

Sell below 0.7065. Stop loss is at 0.7113. Take profit is at 0.6968.

analytics58d5383391080.png

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24.03.2017
03:15 PM


EUR/JPY profit target reached, prepare to buy

The price has shot down and reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 119.15 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement) for a bounce up to at least 120.33 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 4.2% level and also displays bullish divergence versus the price.

Buy above 119.15. Stop loss is at 118.54. Take profit is at 120.33.

analytics58d5381102a19.png

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24.03.2017
03:15 PM


AUD/USD profit target reached perfectly, time to start buying

The price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target. We now look to buy above 0.7619 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, and horizontal overlap support) for a push up to 0.7684 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, recent swing high resistance). Stop loss is at 0.7583 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) in case the price drops further.

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 3.8% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 0.7619. Stop loss is at 0.7583. Take profit is at 0.7684.

analytics58d537ecbc5f1.png

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24.03.2017
01:36 PM


Trading Plan for EUR/USD and Gold for March 24, 2017

analytics58d51b82d6636.jpg

Technical outlook:

The EURUSD had dropped yesterday according to the plan discussed here and almost hit the first levels at 1.0750, before pulling back higher again. The current wave structure reveals that the rally is corrective in nature at least for now. As labeled here on the hourly chart, the drop from 1.0825 levels unfolded into 5 waves, labeled i through v. This termination could be wave 1 of one higher degree or wave A of the A-B-C corrective drop. Furthermore, the rally through 1.0810 levels today could be wave 2 or wave B. In either case, a drop towards 1.0700 and 1.0650 levels is expected. The further course of the trend may be decided later on. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0825 levels, while support is at 1.0700/10 levels. Only if EURUSD breaks above 1.0829 levels, the drop could be delayed further. Please note that the pair might have already formed a meaningful top at 1.0825 levels but need to follow through lower to confirm the same.

Trading plan:

Please remain short for now and add fresh positions here, stop at 1.0875, targeting at least 1.0700 and 1.0650 levels.

Gold chart setups:

analytics58d51d8e07778.jpg

Technical outlook:

Gold seems to have topped out for now after printing intraday highs yesterday at $1253 levels. The 4H wave structure still suggests that the rally from $1195 is corrective in nature as labeled here. The overall wave counts and high probability suggests that Gold had dropped into 5 waves earlier forming an impulse, labeled as wave A. Furthermore the metal has now terminated into wave B, and should be looking to drop lower into wave C lower towards $1180 levels before resuming its overall rally. The alternate wave count could be that the metal could drop in a corrective manner and find support around $1217 levels before resuming rally. In either case, a drop lower is expected at least towards $1217/20 levels from here. Please note that resistance is seen at $1253 levels, while support is at $1195 levels respectively. Only a push above $1253 levels now would put the above wave count as void.

Trading plan:

Please remain short for now, stop at 1256, targeting 1225.

Fundamental outlook:

With no major fundamental news today, the volatility is expected to remain less and prices should not expect major triggers. Watch out for the USD Manufacturing PMI to be out in the next 10 minutes, though.

Good luck!

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24.03.2017
01:33 PM


Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 24, 2017

analytics58d51f6c6dcfe.png

Wave summary:

The triangle consolidation we mentioned yesterday is shaping up nicely and all that is needed is a minor setback to 1.5285 before the triangle is complete and wave [5] higher to 1.5764 should be expected.

A break above minor resistance seen at 1.5441 will indicate that wave [v] higher is unfolding.

R3: 1.5537

R2: 1.5460

R1: 1.5441

Pivot: 1.5400

S1: 1.5285

S2: 1.5263

S3: 1.5230

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5170 with stop placed at 1.5160. Take profit will be placed at 1.5750.

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24.03.2017
01:27 PM


Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 24, 2017

analytics58d51e526f6e1.png

Wave summary:

We continue to look for a firm test of minor resistance seen at 120.34, This resistance might be broken slightly before a correction toward 119.65 from where the next strong rally is expected higher toward 122.88 and above.

R3: 121.05

R2: 120.65

R1: 120.34

Pivot: 120.00

S1: 119.60

S2: 119.28

S3: 119.16

Trading recommendation:

Buy near 119.65 or upon a clear break above 120.34 with stop placed at 119.20

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24.03.2017
12:09 PM


USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 24, 2017

analytics58d50c268ff07.pnganalytics58d50c301abba.png

Since April 2016, the USD/CAD pair has been trending upward within the depicted ascending channel.

In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recently established top).

During the bearish pullback, the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support to the pair.

This allowed further bearish movement toward the price level of 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where a valid BUY entry was offered in February 2017.

This week, the current bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) enhanced further advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3530.

The next bullish target would be located around 1.3800 (upper limit of the depicted channel) if the pair maintains upside trading above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) which stands as a prominent support level.

On the other hand, if the USD/CAD pair moves below 1.3300, it may become trapped again within the depicted consolidation range (1.3300-1.2970).

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24.03.2017
12:07 PM


NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 24, 2017

analytics58d50baead461.png

The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (the key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed further advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (Sell-Zone) where the bearish price action was expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 allowed further decline toward 0.7100 then 0.6960 which failed to provide enough support for the pair.

That is why further bearish fall was expected toward 0.6860 (the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone) where a bullish position was suggested in previous articles.

This week, the bullish breakout above the depicted key level (0.6960) was achieved. That is why any bearish pullback toward 0.6960 should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry.

On the other hand, the price level of 0.7100 remains a significant key level to be watched for bearish price action if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.7040.

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24.03.2017
10:07 AM


USD/JPY analysis for March 24, 2017

analytics58d4efa094feb.png

Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 111.10. According to the 1H time frame, I found powerlessness from the buyers to move USD/JPY higher, which is a sign of weakness. The USD/JPY is in short – term bearish trend. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Targets are set at the price of 110.70 and 110.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 111.40

R2: 111.65

R3: 112.00

Support levels:

S1: 110.70

S2: 110.50

S3: 110.10

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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24.03.2017
09:57 AM


EUR/USD analysis for March 24, 2017

analytics58d4ecd12e961.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level 1.0821. According to the 1H time frame, I found broken falling wedge and upward cycle. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. There is also an upward channel, which is holding successfully. Targets are set at the price of 1.0820, 1.0900, and 1.0950.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.0800

R2: 1.0810

R3: 1.0820

Support levels:

S1: 1.0770

S2: 1.0760

S3: 1.0750

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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24.03.2017
09:51 AM


Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 24, 2017

NZDUSDH4.png

Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still moving around the area of 0.7075. The pair has already formed minor resistance at 0.7004 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 0.7075 because it represents the weekly resistance 1. So, major resistance is seen at 0.7004, while immediate support is found at 0.6889. If the pair closes below the price of 0.6889, the NZD/USD pair may resume its movement to 0.6850 to test the daily support 2. The NZD/USD pair to move between the levels of 0.7004 and 0.6850. The RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market. The current price is also below the moving average 100. As a result, sell below the double top of 0.7004 with targets at 0.6869 and 0.6850. On the other hand, stop loss should always be taken into account; accordingly, it will be useful to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 0.7075.

Daily key levels:

  • Major resistance: 0.7132
  • Minor resistance 2: 0.7075
  • Minor resistance 1: 0.7004
  • Intraday pivot point: 0.6946
  • Minor support: 0.6889
  • Major support 1: 0.6850
  • Major support 2: 0.6800
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24.03.2017
09:44 AM


Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 24, 2017

USDCHFH1.png

Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9991, while minor resistance is seen at 0.9949. Support is found at the levels of 0.9915 and 0.9891.
  • Also, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already seen at the level of 0.9949.
  • The USD/CHF pair is still moving around the key level at 0.9949, which represents a daily pivot on the H1 chart at the moment.
  • The USD/CHF pair continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9991. The pair fell from the level of 0.9991 to the bottom around 0.9881.
  • Currently, the price is seen at 0.9925. In consequence, the USD/CHF pair couldn't break resistance (0.9949).
  • So, the level of 0.9949 is expected to act as minor resistance today.
  • We expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from the resistance level of 0.9949 towards the target level of 0.9881.
  • If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9881, the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below the level of 0.9881 in order to reach the second target at 0.9850.
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24.03.2017
09:14 AM


Global macro overview for 24/03/2017

Global macro overview for 24/03/2017:

The PMI Manufacturing data from Japan was worse than anticipated. The PMI Index decreased from 53.5 points to 52.6 points, while the market participants expected only a tick down to 53.3 points. It was the lowest reading in three months, but still any PMI above 50 signals expansion in economic activity, whereas a reading below that level signals contraction. March was the seventh consecutive month manufacturing activity expanded, however, output, new orders, and new export orders increased at a slower rate in March. Future expectations remained positive, although optimism was more subdued than in previous months.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still trading inside of the technical support zone between the levels of 110.62 - 111.30 and if the bull camp will not manage to break out above it, then the 50%Fibo at the level of 109.92 will be tested. The oversold trading conditions and positive divergence help the bullish case, but so far all attempts to break out higher resulted in a failure.

analytics58d4e361421e7.jpg

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24.03.2017
09:11 AM


EUR/GBP fundamental analysis for March 24, 2017

After retesting the 0.8760 resistance area the price has drastically fell towards 0.86. Today was an important day for EUR having French and German Manufacturing PMI where both posted positive result of 53.4 and 58.3, which was better than the forecast made for the events. Today Flash Manufacturing PMI also released with positive result at 56.2 which was expected to be at 55.3 and Flash services PMI at 56.5 which was expected to be at 55.4. Observing all the fundamental events today, a stronger EUR gain can be sensed in the coming future against all the currency pairs including GBP. Today GBP has BBA Mortgage Approvals report where previously it was at 44.7k and today it is expected to be at 44.9k. Having all these events aside, currently there is nothing to do in this mid-range market rather than waiting for the time for any upcoming economic events to show greater possibilities on each side.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently showing some bullish presence after bouncing off from 0.86 and if the price breaks below the 0.86 level with a daily close we will be looking forward to sell with a target towards 0.8420. On the other hand, if the bullish pressure continues, we will be expecting the price to go towards the resistance 0.8760. A daily close today will enclose the mystery for upcoming moves in the next week in this pair.

analytics58d4e2a526065.jpg

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24.03.2017
09:01 AM


Global macro overview for 24/03/2017

Global macro overview for 24/03/2017:

The main political and economic issue is the future of the Obamacare health program. During the presidential campaign, Trump promised to change the current health system in the US that is not working very well in his opinion. The voting should have taken place yesterday, but the Republican Party did not find enough support to dismiss Obamacare. As a result, voting in the House of Representatives has not taken place yet. Trump puts the ultimatum and tends to vote on Friday. He warns that either the Republicans will support the bill in its current form, or Obamacare will continue to function like it is now. The most important conclusion from this whole situation is the fact that the President is struggling to push his bill has raised doubts over whether he can win support for his pro-growth economic policy measures.

Let's now take a look at the SPY (SP500 ETF) technical picture at the H4 time frame. The series of higher highs and higher lows had been terminated at the level of 240.22 and since then now lows has been made. The technical resistance at the level of 235.32 is the key resistance now as any break out above it will open the road to test the recent swing high. On the other hand, if the Healthcare Bill will not pass today, then the market might extend the drop towards the next technical support at the level of 229.80.

analytics58d4e05df01d5.jpg

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24.03.2017
08:54 AM


EUR/USD fundamental analysis for March 24, 2017

EUR/USD has been in a non-volatile up trend since the bounce from 1.0550 support level. Currently the price is correcting below the resistance of 1.0800. Today is quite a positive day for EUR having French Flash Manufacturing PMI at 53.4 which was expected to be at 52.4, French Flash Services report at 58.5 which was expected to be at 56.2, German Flash Manufacturing PMI at 58.3 which was expected to be at 56.6 and the German Flash Services report was positive with 55.6 which was expected to be at 54.5. Overall EUR is quite strong fundamentally today against all other currencies today. On the other hand, USD Core Durable goods orders report is going to be published today which previously was at 0.0% but today it is expected to see a rise of 0.5%. During the USD event, the market is expected to show some volatility and USD may act stronger than EUR for the time being.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has reached the resistance at 1.08 and has already been rejecting and correcting off the level. The pair is also going under a Negative Divergence Module, where the MACD is showing downward movement and price is going upwards. Any bullish rejection off the level and a daily close below 1.08 will open the gates for the sellers to put pressure in the market and push the price lower towards 1.0640-50 support area.

analytics58d4ded3340c4.jpg

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24.03.2017
08:48 AM


Trading plan for 24/03/2017

Trading plan for 24/03/2017:

The market is waiting for the vote on the future of the Obamacare system. In the meantime, the dollar regains some strength, which is helping to stabilize the 10-year profitability of more than 2.40 percent. EUR/USD is heading towards 1.0760. The Wall Street has a modest decline, but Asia is dominated by positive sentiment: the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed green. The gold ounce is priced at less than $ 1,250, and the WTI oil barrel is heading toward $48 again.

On Friday 24th of March, the event calendar is busy with the PMI data release during the European session and then Durable Goods Orders data from the US and Consumer Price Index data from Canada. The Obamacare vote in the US parliament will cast a shadow on market volatility all day.

EUR/USD analysis for 24/03/2017:

The set of the PMI Indices from across the Eurozone are scheduled for release at 08:00 am, 08:30 am and 09:00 am (all times GMT). The most important is the PMI reading from Germany, the Eurozone's economic powerhorse. Generally, the market participants do not expect any deterioration in PMI readings all PMI are expected to be released above 50 points level. In this case, any figures worse than expected, especially below 50, will likely make the common currency to drop like a stone.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market still trades below the key technical resistance at the level of 1.0828 in oversold conditions. This is why the immediate bias is bearish and lower prices are expected in this pair today. If the data will be worse than expected the technical support zone between the levels of 1.0713 - 1.0726 will be tested.

analytics58d4dd319731e.jpg

US Dollar Index analysis for 24/03/2017:

The looming Obamacare vote and the Durable Goods Orders (scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT) might be the key events to shape the future of the US Dollar. Seasonally adjusted Durable Goods Orders are expected to have increased by 1.5% from the previous month. This masks the inconvenient truth that the year-on-year change is close to zero as since 2013, Durable Goods Orders have mostly oscillated around $230 billion without really going anywhere. There is a way out of this difficult situation, but the President Trump administration must implement the tax cuts and then move toward the infrastructure investment program first.

Let's take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at H4 time frame. Since the FED interest rate hike, the market has been decreasing towards the important pre-FED bottom at the level of 99.21. The market conditions are oversold and the growing bullish divergence is suggesting a corrective rally, but the technical resistance at the level of 100.01 still has not been violated yet. Only a sustained break out above this resistance might spark the trend change, otherwise lower levels will be tested.

analytics58d4dd3f9ccc9.jpg

USD/CAD analysis for 24/03/2017:

The Consumer Price Index data from Canada, the key gauge for inflation, is scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and the market participants expect a decrease from the level of 0.9% to the level of 0.2% on a month-to-month basis. Nevertheless, the yearly inflation should not be affected by this decrease and is still expected at the level of 2.1%. Since inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Canadian Dollar, meaning each Dollar buys fewer goods and services, any data better than expected will make Canadian Dollar to appreciate more.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to push the price higher towards the gray rectangle zone, but the price is still trading below the dashed black trend line. If the CPI data will be better than expected, then USD/CAD should dive towards the next technical support at the level of 1.3275. If the CPI data will be worse than expected (especially if they will be negative), then USD/CAD should rally above the dashed trend line towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.3419 and 1.3493.

analytics58d4dd48a5f96.jpg

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24.03.2017
08:14 AM


Technical analysis of USDX for March 24, 2017

The Dollar index has broken out of the downward sloping wedge. The price is showing reversal signs. I expect the Dollar index to strengthen towards 100.80-101 over the next couple of sessions. Trend is bearish as the price is below the 4-hour cloud.

analytics58d4d3e7c8821.png

Blue lines - downward sloping wedge

The Dollar index is testing the short-term resistance at 100. I expect a bounce towards cloud resistance at 100.80. Support is at 99.60. The price is very close to long-term support levels so buyers are expected to step in.

analytics58d4d4ba80106.png

Blue line - resistance

Black line - neckline support

Green line - long-term support trend line

Red lines - price projection target

The Dollar index has reached important weekly support just above 99. If support breaks below the neckline support we should expect a move towards the weekly cloud and even lower. If the price bounces from the current levels, it should find resistance at the blue trend line at 101.80. As long as the price is below the blue trend line, the chances are in favor of a bearish breakdown. This will be confirmed on a break below the necklines at 99.25.

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24.03.2017
08:08 AM


Daily analysis of USDX for March 24, 2017

USDX is being supported by the 99.66 level in the short-term, with a strong resistance trying to cap gains across the board around 100.15. If we witness a breakout over there, one could expect further advances toward 100.64, where the bullish bias could become the main path for the coming days. MACD indicator is reaching the neutral territory.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 100.15 / 100.64

H1 chart's support levels: 99.66 / 99.26

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 99.66, take profit is at 99.26 and stop loss is at 100.04.

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24.03.2017
08:08 AM


Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 24, 2017

GBP/USD still is challenging the resistance zone of 1.2512, where a breakout is likely to happen in the short-term, amid a strengthening of the bulls. When that happens, Cable may attempt a testing of the 1.2570 level, while a pullback can take the pair to reach the 1.2391 zone, where the 200 SMA at the H1 chart is located.

GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2512 / 1.2570

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2391 / 1.2292

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2391, take profit is at 1.2292 and stop loss is at 1.2493.

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24.03.2017
08:05 AM


Technical analysis of gold for March 24, 2017

The gold price has finally shown some reversal signs that we have been expecting for some time now. The pullback has started and I expect to see Gold price test support around $1,230-$1,220. My long-term view remains bullish.

analytics58d4d21245105.jpg

Blue lines - support trend lines

The gold price has broken trend line support and both oscillators have turned lower showing that the correction phase has just started. I expect the gold price to move towards the Ichimoku cloud support and at least towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement. I expect Gold to make higher lows relative to $1,194.

analytics58d4d2bd430b9.jpg

The gold price is above the Ichimoku cloud on a daily basis. Price has made an important low at $1,194 and has reversed upwards. I expect the price to hold above the cloud and make a higher low before the resumption of the uptrend towards my short-term $1,300-$1,320 target. Support is at $1,220 and at $1,230.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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24.03.2017
04:14 AM


Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 24, 2017

USDJPYM30.png

USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair is consolidating below its 50-period moving average, which is playing a resistance role. Additionally, 111.75 represents a significant key resistance level, which should limit the upside potential. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

As long as 111.75 holds on the upside, look for a further drop toward 110.55. A break below this level would call for a further decline toward 110.05.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 110.55. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 110.05. The pivot point stands at 111.75. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 112.25 and the second one at 112.90.

Resistance levels: 112.25, 112.90, and 113.50

Support levels: 110.55, 110.05, and 110.65

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24.03.2017
04:07 AM


Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 24, 2017

USDCHFM30.png

USD/CHF is expected to rebound and the rebound should be limited. The pair is holding on the upside and is trading above its rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the bullish bias. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

Republicans in the House of Representatives postponed a planned vote on U.S. President Donald Trump's healthcare bill, causing investors to doubt on whether Trump could smoothly deliver his other promises on fiscal stimulus and tax cuts.

Therefore, as long as 0.9925 is supported, expect a new rise to 0.9990 and even to 1.0010 in extension.

To sum up, as long as 0.9965 holds on the upside, look for a further drop to 0.9905 and even to 0.9880 in extension.

Resistance levels: 0.9990, 1.0010, and 1.0045

Support levels: 0.9905, 0.9880, and 0.9845

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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