EUR/USD

The Euro - U.S. Dollar pair, remains without a definite trend, and forming a figure reversal technique, if we see in the picture, the gap opening earlier this week, has not yet been covered. So, that adds strength to our bearish outlook. According to the table pivots, the euro - dollar, is trading below the first resitencia weekly, so we think we could go back at least to 1.3130 or more down to 1.3050.

Therefore, we recommend selling at current price levels, and with a stop loss, a little above the monthly maximum around 1.3320, and our ultimate goal in this bearish strategy, we will place on the 61.8% retracement of fibinacci.

MCD indicator. is in a neutral point showing bearish signals.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar - U.S. Dollar pair, continuous in the range of 200 pips, as we noted in the yellow box, and showing signs of a possible change in trend and a fall with greater intensity. We can not discard  the possible pullback, which can take place, as almost always happens when a pair breaks its trendline.

Therefore, we can enter selling, only if the pair closes below 1.0610 or we can wait for the pullback expected to happen, and sell the bearish sequence.

The Range Indicator shows overbought signals.

No significant changes are taking place on Wednesday the European session, the currency market.

Except for the euro, which is still without a clear trend, the dollar is taking some strength against other currencies leaders, and stand out in this context its growth against the yen, which fell from 80 units in the last hour minimum value since mid- July.

Of course, the weak yen leads to lose ground against the euro too, which is still slightly firmer against the dollar and pound sterling to a lesser extent, as the low, who has been the same since the beginning of European session.

It is also remarkable the strength that has an ounce of gold, and oil, not yet filled a gap left in the Asian session on Monday, so it does not provide for $ 105.00, but no one is stronger.

At this point there is a growing concern in Europe. It is known dependence of the old continent with imports of oil which do not produce, and recently suspended as a measure of pressure, its commercial ties with Iran.

It is naive to believe that Europe will run out of oil, just because Iran did not send it, and that Iran will stop selling oil. These maneuvers are always speculative, and ultimately seek to increase the price of oil is too old.

For Europe to get the same oil from Iran, just enough that it will sell the crude to a country outside Europe and that Europe will not buy another country, other costs of course. If that was the concern should not be.

Gold also strengthens in these times, and positions with the upward trend in short-term charts, and search the area at $ 1,800. It is known that one ounce not long to go 20 or $ 30, and any shocking news could have that effect these days, something tumultuous markets.

No major reports to be published, the most relevant and was released in Europe, and certainly has not been encouraging, with European exchanges operate down to another day and the Dow Jones index futures to move away, down from the heights Monday, the rest of the day presented with good business opportunities in the short term charts.

Market Overview
The USD/CAD pair wave trading in upward move yesterday, in European session we could observe price broker 50,100 and 200 EMA resistance and reached a new high at 0.9975 level,in the last few hours of a New York session price pullback to 50EMA.Today price continued to fallow bullish mood and price reached a new high in Asian session at 0.9988.Price did not manage to hold this level and price pushed back to 0.9955 level.In European session after we saw bad news from Europe this major pair once again push higher. We are expecting to see downward movement today to 0.9900 level,We need to take a look at USA Existing Home Sales today that could affect this pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9904 (S2) 0.9924 (S1) 0.9936 (PP) 0.9956 (R1) 0.9976 (R2) 0.9988(R3) 1.0008

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

The USD/CAD pair is finishing (2) wave of bigger (v) wave.We are expecting to see end of (2) wave around 0.9995 and 1.0019 where we can enter short for (3) wave. According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave (3) will finish around 161.8% of (1) wave,we can project our targets for today with Fibonacci extension(1.0050-0.9906-0.9995) to first take profit level at 0.9863(100% of wave (1)) and second take profit at 0.9774(161.8% of wave (1)).

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the downward movement to go lower today. That is why Short position at levels 0.9995 with Stop Loss at 1.0050, Take Profit 1 at 0.9863 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9774 are recommended

Market Overview
The AUD/USD pair was trading in downward move yesterday, in European session we could observe price broke 200EMA and fall under 1.0650 level, in New York session price reached a new low at 1.0645 level. Today in Asian session after news from Australia shows positive results(CB Leading Index m/m,MI Inflation Gauge m/m,Wage Price Index q/q) this major pair start pushing higher and reached a new daily high at 1.0685. Price did not manage to hold this level and after Bad News from Europe AUD/USD start falling down, we are currently at 1.0645 and we are expecting to see price reaching 1.0700 level.We need to take a look at USA Existing Home Sales today that could affect this pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0589 (S2) 1.0627 (S1) 1.0651 (PP) 1.0690 (R1) 1.0728 (R2) 1.0752 (R3) 1.0791

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis
The AUD/USD finished corrective iv wave today at 1.0610 and we are currently in (3) wave of bigger 1 wave.According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave (3) will finish around 161.8% of (1) wave,we can project our targets for today with Fibonacci extension(1.0610-1.0685-1.0630) to first take profit at 1.0713(100% of wave (1)) and second take profit at 1.0760(161.8% of wave (1)).For stop loss we can use 1.0580 support level.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why Long position at levels 1.0650 with Stop Loss at 1.0580, Take Profit 1 at 1.0713 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0760 are recommended

Strong Support: 0.8520.

Strong Resistance: 0.8230.

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events, the price will be trapped between 0.823 and 0.86.

• Buy above 0.8230 with the first target of 0.83, it might resume to 0.8355 and then to 0.85. 
  
• Below 0.852 look for further downside with 0.8385 and 0.8250 targets.
  

Overview:

NZD/USD movement will be continued straight from 0.8108 (at H4 chart 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels), therefore, the Kiwi is showing signs of strength, following the break of the highest level of 0.8230, so it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 61.8 of Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart with the first target of 0.83, and further to 0.8520 (it will act as a strong resistance for that it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide with 78% of Fibonacci). However, in case if a reversal takes place and NZD/USD could not break through the resistance level of 0.852, then the market will lead to further decline to 0.83, indicating bearish market.

Overview:

EUR/JPY's subsequent sharp fall suggests that decline from 106.40 three months ago and had resumed to 103.67 (Weekly Pivot Point). It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 106.00 -- 104.00 and the price has been set below strong resistance at the levels of 106.40. Aswell it is noting that these levels are coinciding on a strong levels for bulls on daily chart and the pair has already formed a strong resistance at this level, therefore Japan Yen will be a downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall looks is not corrective, in order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 106.40 for that it will a good sign to sell below it with a first target of 104.60 and it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 103.67 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on daily chart & You should be noted that the weekly pivot point is at 103.67).

Furthermore, it also have to note that the price at 103.67 will be formed a strong resistance and it is going to call for a strong rebound. So it will be a saturation around 103.67 to rebound the pair, aswell it will probably that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 103.65 with a first target of 104.60 and continue towards 105.75.

Weekly Pivot Point : 103.67

Recommendations:

• Bearish outlook: 106.40 will be formed a strong Resistance (a good sign to sell below it).
• Bullish outlook: 103.65 will be formed a strong Support (a good sign to buy above it).
  

The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel in 1.5760 suggesting a rebound. However a break of these levels would entail a decline to the lower limit of this one to 1.6530.

Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but until that the support is not broken the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded to a result of the strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in the short term.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1.5760 with a 1st objective of 1.5820, then 1.5850. A break in 1.5740 would invalidate this scenario.



 

The silver is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term trading range in 34.50 and seems to initiate a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a bullish trend.

Technical indicators provides buyers signals but approaching to the overbuy zone supporting the assumptions of a decline. Bollinger bands are much discarded to a result of the strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in the short term.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the silver will have broken its resistance in 34.50 with a 1st objective of 34.90, then 35.10. A break in 34.30 would invalidate this scenario.

The gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term trading range in 1762 and seems to initiate a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a bullish trend.

Technical indicators provides sellers signals and approaching the overbuy zone supporting the assumptions of a decline. Bollinger bands are much discarded to a result of the strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in the short term.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1762 with a 1st objective of 1772, then 1775. A break in 1759 would invalidate this scenario.

The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1.3290 and seems to initiate a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a bullish trend.

Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but until that the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.3290 with a 1st objective of 1.3350, then 1.3380. A break in 1.3270 would invalidate this scenario.



 

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62. Within C we have 1, 2, 3, and potential 4th subwave that is developing from 126.77 (colored red in the chart).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.44-122.55, 122.55-126.77-125.59.

Resistances:

- 127.23-31-41 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP), objective point (OP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 128.20 = contracted objective point (COP)

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.62-126.77.

Supports:

- 124.80 = .382 retracement
- 124.19 = .50 ret
- 123.59 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-65 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

AUD/USD is now developing corrective wave B of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). The wave is moving from 1.0844. Within this wave there are subwaves A, B, and C (colored royal blue in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0815. This subwave was confirmed when the price broke below 1.0628 (top of wave A). However there are also smaller waves within the latter - they are A, B, and C (colored orange red in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 1.0749.

Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0815-1.0679-1.0749, 1.0749-1.0654-1.0699.

Supports:

- 1.0613 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0604-1.0599 = confluence area of two OP's
- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0545 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0529 = XOP
- 1.0495 = .50 ret

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0815 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (30-45 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities of going short at or near the indicated resistances.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

Having a massive swing to the downside between 1.4245 - 1.2622, EUR/USD currency pair is now testing 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3237.

Previous visits to this resistance level took place this month with obvious bearish reaction with a possible Head & Shoulders reversal pattern in progress.

Also the pair is testing the upper limit of the drawn sideway channel around the same price level.

Reversal of the upper limit of the channel will push the pair to test the lower limit around 1.2970. However its obvious break will make the forming pattern more likely a Flag continuation pattern.

The EUR/USD is showing obvious bearish reaction towards 38.2% Fibonacci level & the upper limit of the drawn channel.

This enhances the bearish view as long as the pair is unable to step above 1.3322.

Price level 1.3240 is considered a good intraday resistance which should keep price trading below it if the bears are strong enough to initiate a push to the downside today.

Break & Fixation above 1.3325 invalidates the bearish scenario for the time.

Looking at  the Hourly chart for the USD/CAD currency pair using linear regression channels, We see that the pair is trending up within almost two identical bullish channels.

Price level 0.9940 which was mentioned yesterday as a good long entry is now corresponding to the intermediate line of the yellow channel which acts as support for the pair.

The pair is now testing the upper limit of the Yellow channel which is a considerable intraday resistance. However its break will allow the pair to resume its bullish movement.

Failure of the pair to break it will bring the pair back to retest 0.9940 again which if broken will lead to a decline towards 0.9915.

It should be taken into consideration that after puncturing the Weekly Low 0.9924, the USD/CAD came back quickly to trade above it again which may be a trap for sellers before direction change.

Based on the previous analysis

The market indicates a BULLISH opportunity at retest of support level 0.9940 - 0.9945 with SL placed below 0.9900.

Profits should be taken at 0.9965, 0.9990 and 1.0040.

Using the Linear regression channels on the GBP/USD 4H chart, we see the following:

- The GBP/USD currency pair found resistance around 1.5875 which corresponds to the upper limit of both drawn channels.

- The pair has successfully broken the intermediate line of the bullish channel at 1.5800.

- The pair is probably forming a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern which is marked on the chart.

These factors highly suggest that the pair is BEARISH. However, It has a considerable support at 1.5720 which corresponds to the lower limit of the bullish channel & the intermediate line of the longer-term bearish channel where price action should be watched.

Break of the mentioned support will open the way down to the lower limit of the bearish channel around 1.5585.

On the Hourly chart, the pair is testing the lower limit of the yellow channel which is also a daily low at 1.5771.

Break of this support will allow the pair to resume its mentioned scenario on the 4H chart. However, reverse of this support level at 1.5771 will push the pair to test 1.5825 which is considered a better opportunity to go short on the pair.

Price level 1.5825 corresponds to the upper limits of both violet and blue channels & the intermediate line of the yellow channel.

The whole scenario will be invalid if the GBP/USD pair breaks the recorded high at 1.5927.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar - U.S. Dollar pair, is trading in a range of 200 pips and with an upward trend although a little exhausted. Therefore, at this time, no strategy is not recommended. Only if the floor level of the range is broken down, recommend you sell around 1.0610, we believe that below that level will be given a free fall until at least 1.0280.

On the other hand, the uptrend line was broken, but not an overwhelming force, as expected.

The Range Indicator shows overbought signals.

GBP/USD

The British pound - U. S. Dollar pair, shows signs of exhaustion and a possible short-term bearish correcion, given that the level of 1.5900, we could not overcome this level is intact and the pair will have to turn bearish. This level of 1.5900 is also supported by the moving average periods of 200 serving as a strong resistance.

Therefore, recommend already sell at current levels and the escape point a few more pips above 1.5900 or above the weekly R_1
Our first objective, it is placed at 1.5670 which coincides with the 38.6% retracement of Fibinacci, and our ultimate goal in the 61.8% retracement of fibinaci around 1.5500 dollars per pound.

The Momentum indicator is showing bearish signals.

Looking at the Line Regression channels 1H chart for the USD/CAD currency pair, We see that the pair has broken both the Blue & Yellow channels to the upside.

This indicates weakness of the bullish momentum and possible change in direction even in the short term.

Also we notice that after stepping below the weekly low 0.9924, the USD/CAD came back so quickly to trade above it again which may be a trap for sellers.

Based on the previous analysis

The market indicates a BULLISH opportunity at retest of the broken channels around 0.9940 with SL placed above below 0.9900.

Profits should be taken at 0.9965, 0.9990  and 1.0040.

Finally, the agreement reached Greece. The so-called Eurogroup agreed to what was already agreed, signed what was already signed and sealed what was already sealed, and to send it in installments, the money you need to Greece to avoid falling into default.

The main trouble to end the issue is the payment due March 20 to Greece 14.4 billion euros, which was the main concern of the markets and the European Union. But then comes a barrage of external commitments, if you do not have the money to pay would lead to this beleaguered country back to bankruptcy.

It will radically change the landscape with this decision. For two years, the incompetence, stupidity and lack of leadership of those who should solve this problem one way or another, has been creating an expectation that eventually deflate at these times, realizing that Greece will remain a very poor country, with GDP in freefall for the last 5 years, with high unemployment, and with no chance of growth.

So solve the financial problem, but not economic.

Anyway, it's always better to prevent bankruptcies occur, and the workaround seems the most reasonable, arrives later. The issue will now maintain the conditions that allowed the agreement, and not every problem that change to emerge. Otherwise, a few months in Greece will be the center of the world's financial markets.

They cautiously took the deal. We no longer believe the political class, very discredited by its perceived lack of resources to solve difficult problems, and do not believe that Greece and the rest of Europe fulfill its promises.

From there comes the decline in euro of these hours, after feinting to exceed 1.33 in minutes, fell from the European session opening Tuesday in a trend but remains slightly bullish in the short term, as is close to being breached.

The other leading currencies has a behavior similar to the single currency. The British pound failed to return to the level of 1.59 which exceeded a few days ago, and the coins "commodities" present and downtrends in the short term.

Both oil and gold have remained stable over the last few hours, although the outlook for the U.S. trading session are slightly bearish, which could deepen the corrections seen the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

The loonie has moved throughout February in a very narrow price range of just 160 points, and a drop of oil to $ 100 zone could negatively impact its price against the dollar.

Just come to Canada, at 8:30 Eastern, the only relevant fact of the day: retail sales, which speaks of a previous very slight growth in January of the same.

Looking at the Line Regression channels 1H chart for the GBP/USD currency pair, We see that GBP/USD has broken both the Blue & Yellow channels.

This indicates weakness of the bullish momentum and possible change in direction even in the short term.

Also there's a possible Head & Shoulders reversal pattern on this 1H chart which enhances our view.

Based on the previous analysis

The market indicates a bearish opportunity at retest of the broken channels around 1.5840 with SL placed above 1.5880.

Profits should be taken at 1.5800, 1.5770 and 1.5705.

Market Overview
The USD/CAD pair was trading in upward move yesterday, in European session we could observe continuation of bullish mood and price reaching 0.9942 level, in the New York session price continued to go higher reaching 50EMA resistance.Today in early Asian session price reached a new high slightly above 100EMA,Price did not manage to hold this level and after Greek bailout this pair start falling to 0.9925 level.We are expecting to see USD/CAD above 0.9980 today.We have to take a look at Canadian Core Retail Sales m/m that could affect this currency pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9891 (S2) 0.9904 (S1) 0.9913 (PP) 0.9927 (R1) 0.9940 (R2) 0.9949 (R3) 0.9963

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair finished wave (1) of bigger (V) wave at 0.9915, and we are currently in (2) wave. According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave (2) will retrace 50 or 61.8% of wave (1) we can project our targets point for today with Fibonacci retrace(1.0050-0.9915) to first take profit at 0.9982(50% of wave (1)) and second take profit at 0.9998(61.8% of wave (1)).For stop loss we can use 0.9950

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why Long position at levels 0.9970 with Stop Loss at 0.9950, Take Profit 1 at 0.9982 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9998 are recommended
 

Pivot Point: 1.5855

GBP/USD:

• Resistance: 1.5945. (Sell below this level).
  
• Support: 1.5645. (Buy above this level).
  

Trading Recommendations:

According to the previous events, the price is still located between levels 1.5645 and 1.5945.

BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 1.5645 level with targets at levels 1.571 and 1.5825.
The descending movement will probably take place lower than the 1.5945 level with the first targets at levels 1.5855, 1.58 and 1.57.

Overview:

It should be noted that the market revealed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. Concerning the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.5945 and 1.5645 so it is recommended to be cautious while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then, the market will probably indicate the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 1.5645 level with its first target at level 1.572. From this point the pair is likely to begin the ascending movement to the point 1.58 and further to the level to 1.59. However, if the pair is not manage to pass through the level 1.5945, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level 1.5925. In this regard, SELL-deals are recommended lower than the 1.593 level with the first target of 1.585. It is possible that the pair will turn to downward movement continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.57.

Intraday Technical levels (the 20^th of February, 2012):

R3: 1.5910
R2: 1.5895
R1: 1.5870
PP: 1.5855
S1: 1.5830
S2: 1.5815
S3: 1.5790

Definition (s):

Range I – A long-term mean reversion strategy that looks to go against strong divergence from the pair’s average value. It will typically hold trades for an extended period of time and is one of the slower moving trading strategies.

Range II– Like Breakout 2, uses sentiment as a filter for its trades. It will use a simple oscillator range trading strategy but only take the trading signals if SSI is not at extremes. It is fairly short-term in nature and will tend to trade very little during times of strong trending moves. It is likewise one of the most volatility-sensitive trading systems and will tend to do poorly during times of sharp currency moves.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

Market Overview
The AUD/USD pair was trading in downward move yesterday, after this pair started with a big gap in the early Asian session price reached 50 EMA support at 1.0745 level , price continue to fallow trend in European session breaking 100 EMA. Today in the Asian session AUD/USD pair fall under 1.0680 level,price did not manage to hold this level and price start going in upward move,after RBA decide to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.25%. We are expecting little pullback before we can see this currency pair above 1.0800 level.Greek Bailout will help this pair to go higher today.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0693 (S2) 1.0722 (S1) 1.0740 (PP) 1.0769 (R1) 1.0798 (R2) 1.0816 (R3) 1.0845

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis
The AUD/USD pair finished (2) wave at 1.0478, and we are currently at the start of wave (3) of bigger v wave. According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave (3) will finish at 161.8% of wave (1) we can project our target levels for today with Fibonacci extension(1.0645-1.0799-1.0478) to first take profit at 1.0832(100% of wave (1)) and second take profit at 1.0927(161.8% of wave (1)).for stop loss we can use 1.0650 support level.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why Long position at levels 1.0730 with Stop Loss at 1.0650, Take Profit 1 at 1.0832 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0927 are recommended

The silver is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel in 33.90 and seems to initiate a decline. However a break of these levels would free a large potebntial and allow it to reach the upper limit of its channel to 34.30.

Technical indicators provides sellers with signals and are approaching the overbuy zone supporting the assumptions of a decline. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the silver will have broken its resistance in 33.90 with a 1st objective of 34.30, then 34.50. A break in 33.70 would invalidate this scenario.