Breakdown of Price Zone 1.5960-1.5940 lead to quick decline towards 1.5860-1.5840 which was broken too leading to price zone 1.5740-1.5760.
Price Zone 1.5740 - 1.5760 corresponds to the lower limit of the Violet & Blue channels and also to the Average Daily Range which is indicative of possible bullish retracement coming after.
The GBP/USD has shown extensive bearish decline yesterday exceeding the Average Daily range breaking its Intraday Support levels. However, today there are signs of bullish recovery manifested in breaking the upper limit of the Yellow channel.
There's a possible Head and shoulders being formed with head at 1.5730 which becomes confirmed with bullish closure above neck-line located at 1.5825 to be targeting to the price level of 1.5925.

Based on the previous analysis

The market offers a bullish opportunity at price level 1.5770 with a tight Stop Loss below 1.5730.

TP levels are to be located at 1.5810, 1.5885 and 1.5925.

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The USD/CAD pair 4H chart revealed a strong bearish rejection of price level 1.0050, which pushed the USD/CAD pair downside towards 0.9990.
The lower limits of the Violet & Blue channels at 0.9990 were tested providing strong support for the USD/CAD pair.
Bullish rejection towards 0.9990 allowed USD/CAD to initiate a new bullish swing towards 1.0225 establishing a significant support level at 1.0050 and the newer one at 1.0125.
Retesting of Price Level 1.0125 will be also a retesting of the backside of the broken violet channel. However it's considered risky to take bullish opportunity without obvious bullish price action.
On the Hourly chart, USD/CAD is moving within narrow ranged bullish channels which are being tested today with the lower limit of the Yellow channel at 1.0165.
Breakdown of 1.0165 opens the way for Price Levels 1.0125 initially, then probably 1.0050. However, rejection with bullish price action towards this level will probably be a good BUY entry towards new higher levels.
It's important to note that the pair has an Intraday Resistance level at 1.0185 corresponding to the backside of the broken violet channel which constitutes a valid SELL entry with SL located above 1.0230.

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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave
For the last few days the GBP/JPY pair was developing impulsive wave 3 (coloured blue). Yesterday during European session we could observe a descending move toward the 126.90 level. Therefore during the New York session we could observe strong bearish mood in this currency pair and price drop to 125.10. Today during the early Asian session price continued to fall and we could observe price at the 124.59 level. We can consider this move as end of wave 3 (coloured blue). Presently we are at the start of the 4 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 161.8% of the wave 2, we can define the potential targets with measuring 2 wave with Take Profit at 127.37 (161.8% of wave 2). The support level at the 124.50 level can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the GBP and JPY G8 Meetings that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 123.29 (S2) 124.37 (S1) 125.04 (PP) 126.12 (R1) 127.20 (R2) 127.87 (R3) 128.95

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 125.50 with Stop Loss at 124.50 and Take Profit at 127.37 are recommended

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading upwards developing last 5 wave of the bigger 3 wave (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe ascending move toward the 1.0156 level. Therefore, during the New York session USD/CAD continued trading in a bullish mood reaching a new daily high at the 1.0195 level. Today during the Asian session we could observe one more push higher where the USD/CAD pair reached 1.0226. We can consider this move as the end of 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). Presently we are at the start of the corrective 4 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 61.8% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracements (1.0053-1.0226) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0108 (50% of wave 3) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0080 (61.8% of wave 3). The resistance level at 1.0225 can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m and USD Treasury Currency Report, G8 Meetings, that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0073 (S2) 1.0107 (S1) 1.0129 (PP) 1.0164 (R1) 1.0198 (R2) 1.0220 (R3) 1.0255

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0165 with Stop Loss at 1.0225, Take Profit 1 at 1.0108 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0080 are recommended

The spot rate is currently testing the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel at 100.20 and seems to initiate a rebound. Nevertheless, breaking these levels will release good potential and initiate a more violent bearish trend.

Technical indicators provide sell-signals but evolving in oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 100.20 with the 1st objective at 100.80 and then at 101.00. A break through 99.90 will alter this scenario.

Gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 1,580 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 1,636.

Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as gold has broken through its resistance of 1,580 with the 1st objective at 1,590 and then at 1,595. A break through 1,577 will invalidate this scenario.

The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5690 and seems to start a rebound. However, a pass of these levels will release good potential and reach the lower limit of this one to 1,5360.

Technical indicators provide sell-signals but until the support is not broken the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.5690 with the 1st objective at 1.5750 and then at 1.5770. A break through 1.5670 will alter this scenario.

The spot rate is now testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.2720 and seems to initiate a decline. Still, a break through these levels will free good potential and initiate a violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.2720 with the 1st objective at 1.2780 and then at 1.2800. A puncture of 1.2700 will invalidate this scenario.

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

As depicted above, the single currency is holding the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.4900 for now. One can expect a bounce here which can at least take it to 1.5030 in a short term. Until prices are above the trend line is supported, which now passes through the 1.4820/30 levels, the wave structure remains unchanged and one should enter buying on dips towards 1.4900/1.4850. The upside target remains 1.5200 at least for now.

Trading Recommendations:

Buy at 1.4700, stop at 1.4900, targetting at 1.5200.

Good Luck!

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

We have depicted the daily wave structure above. It is quite possible that C is in place at the 111.00 level, which is the 0.618 level of A (117.00) and B (97.50) levels. The new channel resistance is holding well and prices have broken down 110.50 levels as well. The last intermediary support level comes in around the 100.15 level. A bounce from there can still change the wave structure to bullish, but a break will then target below the 97.00 level as our D extension. As of now one can still remain short for one more day, though our expected downside targets have been met, bring down the stop loss risk to 102.00 now.

Tradign Recommendations:

Sell at 104.00/104.25, stop at 105.50, targets achieved at 100.50. Still holding short positions with stop at 102.00 now.

 Good Luck!

• Strong Support: 0.7530.
• Strong Resistance: 0.7718 & 0.7930.

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events the price is expected to remain between 0.77 and 0.7930 levels.

• Buy-deals are recommended above 0.7535 with the first target seen at 0.7625. The movement is likely to resume to the point 0.7675 and further to the point 0.772.
  
• The decending movement is likely to begin from the level 0.7720 with 0.76 and 0.7535 seen as targets
  

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is expected to continue the movement from the point 0.7531 (11% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the Daily chart). Thus, kiwi shows the signs of strength, following the breakdown of the highest level 0.7933. This fact can be considered as a good signal for BUY-deals above the point 11% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the H4 chart with the first targets 0.76 and 0.772 (it will act as a strong resistance level and considered as appropriate for Take Profit orders). It is necessary to mention that this level will coincide with 23.6% of Fibonacci (0.772). However, in case of the reverse movement and if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level 0.772, the market will further decline to the 0.754 level, indicating a bearish mood.

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Weekly Pivot Point: 1.0060.

Overview:

The market will continue showing strength by going to the level 1.0063 (100% of Fibonacci retracement levels - Daily chart). Therefore, the USD/CAD pair's resistance was broken and turned into support two days ago (on the 16^th of May, 2012); the pair has already formed a strong support at the level of 1.0063. So the market indicates a bullish opportunity at level 1.0070 with 1.0150 seen as first objective and continues its movement towards 1.0185 and further to 1.0215. However, if the trend does not manage to break through and close above the level 1.0215, then a downside momentum will begin which is rather convincing. The structure of the downfall looks as non-corrective, for that the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at 1.0215, hence it will be a good sign to sell at this level in order to continue the downward movement towards 1.0125.

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events, the price remains between 1.0080 and 0.9900.

• Consider the downside movement below 1.0215 with target seen at the 1.0125 level then 1.0080.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, as the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios invalidated.

Key level at 1.0215.

The pair will probably experience the same at this level.

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TODAY's   TECHNICAL   LEVELS:

Resistance. 3 : 79.82

Resistance. 2 : 79.66

Resistance. 1 : 79.51.

Support. 1 : 79.31.

Support. 2 : 79.15.

Support. 3 : 78.99.

DESCRIPTION :

Please, pay attention to the levels of support. 3 (78.99) and resistance. 3 (79.82), in general, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign of that these currencies have found trends today.

TODAY's   TECHNICAL   LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level : 1.2758.

Strong Resistance : 1.2750.

Original Resistance : 1.2738.

Inner Sell Area : 1.2726.

Target Inner Area : 1.2696.

Inner Buy Area : 1.2666.

Original Support : 1.2654.

Strong Support : 1.2641.

Breakout SELL Level : 1.2633.

DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2654 and 1.2738 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2641 and by 1.2750 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below a 1.2633-level today, then this will indicate considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above a 1.2758-level, then this will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.2666 and at 1.2726 – a SELL position, in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2696.

AUD/USD is developing impulse wave A (light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend. Within this wave there are five subwaves (magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave 5 is developing from 0.9967.

The targets below the current price are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0473-1.0110-1.0219, 1.0219-0.9870-0.9967, 0.9967-0.9895-0.9957.

Supports:

- 0.9769 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.9751 = contracted objective point (COP)

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 0.9967 (the 5th wave) - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (35-40 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (55-65 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (red in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 128.71. The latter also has its subwaves (orange red in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 128.33.

The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 131.75-127.76-129.32.

Supports:

- 122.86 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 128.33 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (25-30 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-50 pips above the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

Now the financial world faces the threat of a furious outbreak of the debt crisis in several European nations, starting with Greece, but closely followed by Spain and Italy.
The abrupt departure of more than 700 million euro of Greek banks in the environment causes the fear that the country's financial system will collapse, with unpredictable consequences for the moment not only for that nation, but also for others who follow in their footsteps.
Spain, in this context, manages to place debt every day, but at costs that are close to record highs. Something similar happens in Italy. In both cases, the recession and unemployment are too common words, and so far are not sustainable outputs to these problems.
This not only creates a climate of uncertainty, but also causes an ambiguous feeling. Germany and France, for now the two countries better off and maintainers of the eurozone, issue joint statements endorsing the continuation of Greece as a member of the same. However, these expressions may have other interpretations indoors.
The meeting with German Chancellor Merkel and the French leader Hollande was suggestive. There was so much urgency to go to Berlin, while the guests at the inauguration ceremony of Hollande were still in the rooms prepared for that purpose, to issue a statement in favor of Greece. If so, is that too complicated ahead.
And this seems so complicated and can take shape after the middle of the week. Greece has announced new elections, probably on June 17 (Greece is the cradle of democracy and cannot be programmed with a specific date for an election a month later), and the feeling prevailing in the southern nation is that they do accept European aid, but the austerity plan imposed in return.
The ambiguous feeling that we alluded to wonder just happens to be best for the eurozone. If you keep a country that has shown signs of failure in each of the commitments, or directly held her hand.
In the first case, the danger is that, before a collapse of its banks, other banks fall at the same time, and certainly much more important than bank premises. Spain and Italy should expect then a new opportunity to receive more aid, as if only there was a fire truck to three fires.
If Greece finally is out of the euro, as is thought to happen, the severity of the situation is the same, but with another approach. Discounting the country return to Hellenic drachma currency before the euro, but hyper devalued, which will generate inflation, economic chaos and an immediate isolation from the rest of the world, Europe will take charge of debt, which was signed, endorsed and implemented by the European Union, IMF, and private banks.
If this happens, the contagion effect on other banks will be instantaneous, and only the European Central Bank, through a monumental issue euro may bring some relief to the situation. The ECB appears today as the only entity with the key out of the crisis, although the high cost, similar to what the Fed did in the American banking crisis of 2008 and 2009.
Germany refuses, rightly, to take such actions. But with the new French government, and the pressure will in the near future, will have to give.
In any case, the euro would be affected negatively. About a month ago we said we did not see reason for the single currency as bullish behavior observed, being that half of Europe is in recession and a record unemployment.
An issue of euro can only generate its devaluation and a resurgence of inflation, which by now seems the lesser evil, if what is sought is that at least the next two years more nations do not follow the failed path of Greece.
In this context, every day becomes more blurred for Europe, the euro continues to perform multi-month lows, accompanied by the British pound, which had remained very strong in recent weeks. For the rest of the day, and even when we expect a recovery in both currencies, the euro has brackets 1.2630, where he spends a month uptrend line (derived from mid-2010), and 1.26, the pound has goals at 1.57, still far from the current 1.5830.
Weekly unemployment rate of the Philadelphia Fed planned for within a few minutes, pass almost unnoticed, to a market that has its eyes, minute by minute, the European crisis.

The USD/CAD pair 4H chart revealed a strong bearish rejection of price level 1.0050, which pushed the USD/CAD pair downside towards 0.9990.
The lower limits of the Violet & Blue channels at 0.9990 were tested providing strong support for the USD/CAD pair.
Bullish rejection towards 0.9990 allowed the USD/CAD to initiate a new bullish swing towards 1.0155 establishing a significant support level at 1.0050.
Price Level 1.0100 is important on the 1H Chart as it corresponds to the lower limit of the Violet channel and to the mid-line of the Yellow channel where price action should be watched for a possible intraday position.
Breakdown of 1.0100 opens the way for Price Levels 1.0050 initially, then probably 1.0000. However, rejection with bullish price action towards this level will probably be a good BUY entry towards new higher levels.
It's important to note that the pair has an Intraday Resistance level at 1.0175 which corresponds to the upper limit of the Yellow channel which constitutes a valid SELL entry with SL located above 1.0205.

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The GBP/USD pair is demonstrating extensive bearish movement this week which is manifested in the Strongly Bearish Intraday Regression Channels.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair failed to fixate above the Price Zone 1.5960-1.5940 which enhanced quick decline towards 1.5860-1.5840.
The GBP/USD pair has exceeded its Average Daily Range for today which is located at 1.5845 which is suggestive for a possible bullish retracement soon.
GBP/USD is currently testing the lower limit of its Linear Regression Channels which are located around Price Level 1.5800.

Based on the previous analysis

The market offers a bullish opportunity at price level 1.5800 with a tight Stop Loss below 1.5760.

TP levels are to be located at 1.5840, 1.5885 and 1.5925.

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Overview:
Euro is trying to recover despite ongoing crisis in Europe due to Greek and French elections. The resistance for EUR/USD is at 1.2757, if this level is achieved the next resistance will be at 1.2814. Next support level is 1.2650 and 1.2621. My advice is still not to sell, until recovery is achieved.

Recommendations:
If you are in sell-positions, you can close them between the 1.2681 level and 1.2663; the same range is suitable for the short-term buying as well.
If you are in buy-positions, then the suitable level range will be from 1.2757 to 1.2778 the same range is suitable for the near-term selling as well.

Trends:
Near Term: Downward
Short Term: Sideways
Medium Term: Sideways

Warning:
Analysis and technical levels are provided only for the educational and informative purposes. Please check also the fundamental analysis before opening every single position. Keep yourself away from the market, if the market is volatile. Always try to open positions with good price level. Remember Forex is like fishing, not like hunting.

Money Management Warning:
Never puto to risk more than 2 or 3% of your equity in a trade:
For example, 2% of 1,000 USD is 20$ and if your stop is 50 pips, then your lot size will be calculated as 20$/50 = 0.4 of insta lot which means it will be about 40 cents and similarly if your stop level is 100 pips than lot size will be calculated as follow 20$/100 = 0.2 Insta lots it will be about 20 cents.

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading upwards. During the Asian session we could observe ascending movement towards the 1.0130 level, where this major pair found resistance and started pushing lower in a European session. During the early New York session USD/CAD found support a few pips above 50EMA, and we could observe an upward move towards 1.0131 (new daily high). Today during the Asian session we could observe slight correction of this currency pair to the 1.0105 level. I expect to see price above 1.0180 for the end of the 3 wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 200% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9953-1.0050-0.9990) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0179 (200% of wave 1). The support level at the 1.0105 level can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Treasury Sec Geithner Speech, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and CAD Foreign Securities Purchases, Wholesale Sales m/m, that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0023 (S2) 1.0053 (S1) 1.0072 (PP) 1.0102 (R1) 1.0132 (R2) 1.0151 (R3) 1.0181

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0140 with Stop Loss at 1.0105 and Take Profit at 1.0180

EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair was trading sideways. During the European session we could observe downward movement towards the 1.2680 level where this pair find support and started pushing higher. Therefore during the early New York session we could observe price around 1.2760 level. At the second half of New York session the EUR/USD start pushing lower again and this major closed Wednesday at the 1.2700 level. Today during the Asian session we could observe bullish mood and price reaching 50 EMA resistance. We have German, French and Swiss bank holiday today so I do not expect high volatility before New York start. Presently we can observe end of the 5 wave (coloured pink) of the bigger 3 wave (coloured blue) so we should be prepared for entering with long position for catching corrective 4 wave (coloured blue).In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 100% of the wave 2, we can define the potential targets with measuring the 2 wave. Take Profit at 1.2918 (100% of wave 2). The resistance point at the 1.2600 level can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Treasury Sec Geithner Speech, that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.2641 (S2) 1.2670 (S1) 1.2689 (PP) 1.2718 (R1) 1.2747 (R2) 1.2766 (R3) 1.2795

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.2660 with Stop Loss at 1.2600 and Take Profit at 1.2918 are recommended.

The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 102.50 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 103.10.

Technical indicators provide sell-signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 102.50 with the 1st objective at 103.10 and then at 103.30. A break through 102.30 will invalidate this scenario.

Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1,552 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and initiate a violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators provide sell-signals and until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as gold has broken through its resistance of 1,552 with the 1st objective at 1,565 and then at 1,570. A break through 1,549 will invalidate this scenario.

The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5860 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 1.5020.

Technical indicators provide sell-signals but until the support is not broken the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.5860 with the 1st objective at 1.5920 and then at 1.5950. A break through 1.5840 will alter this scenario.