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24.02.2017
03:57 PM


Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 24, 2017

GBPUSDH4.png

Overview

The GBP/USD pair has been hovering around 1.2550 levels since morning and made an initial attempt to breach it, keeping the bullish trend scenario active for today; the price is likely to rally to 1.2720 directly. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid in the upcoming sessions unless breaking and holding below 1.2475 levels, pointing that the EMA50 provides positive support for the suggested bullish wave. The expected trading range for today is between the 1.2475 support and the 1.2650 resistance.

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24.02.2017
03:55 PM


Daily analysis of EUR/USD for February 24, 2017

EURUSDH4.png

Overview

The EURUSD pair achieved an initial breach of the first critical resistance level at 1.0581 to begin testing the resistance of the falling wedge at 1.0600. A breach of these levels will stop the suggested bearish trend in our last reports and push the price to achieve gains that begin at 1.0731. In general, the suggested scenario will remain valid unless breaching and holding above 1.0600. The awaited target of the current bearish wave is located at 1.0455. The expected trading range for today is between the 1.0455 support and the 1.0650 resistance.

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24.02.2017
03:51 PM


Daily analysis of Gold for February 24, 2017

GOLDH4.png

Overview

The gold price resumed its bullish rally breaching 1,249.94 levels and building a major support base above it, which supports the continuation of our bullish trend expectations efficiently in the upcoming period. The view is also supported by the EMA50, and the price is likely to head towards our next target at 1,270.00. Note that holding above 1,249.94 levels became the first condition for the continuation of the bullish rally for today. A break of it will push the price to test critical support levels that begin at 1,236.00 and might extend to 1,225.50 before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between the 1,240.00 support and the 1,270.00 resistance.

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24.02.2017
03:49 PM


Daily analysis of Silver for February 24, 2017

SILVERH4.png

Overview

The silver price managed to hit our initial main target at 18.30 and settled there, waiting to breach this level to confirm extension of the bullish wave to 19.38 as the next main station. The price remains within the bullish channel shown in the image, which supports expectations for more upside moves. Therefore, the positive scenario will remain valid for today conditioned by holding above 17.95 levels. The expected trading range for today is between the 18.00 support and the 18.45 resistance.

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24.02.2017
02:42 PM


Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 24 - 2017

analytics58b045b7865b3.png

Wave summary:

The correction in wave [ii] finally seems to have found its completion with the test of 1.4554 and we will now be looking for a break above the minor resistance seen at 1.4751 and more importantly a break above the resistance at 1.4866 that confirms continuation higher towards 1.5282 and above.

Support is now seen at 1.4554 and again at 1.4495 that needs to protect the downside.

R3: 1.4866

S2: 1.4803

S1: 1.4751

Pivot: 1.4680

S1: 1.4581

S2: 1.4554'

S3: 1.4495

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.4840 with stop placed at 1.4490. If you are not long already, then buy a break above 1.4751 and more importantly a break above 1.4866

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24.02.2017
02:36 PM


Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 24 - 2017

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Wave summary:

As long as the short-term important support at 118.55 protects the downside, we will be looking for a break above the minor resistance at 119.51 and more importantly above the resistance at 120.32 that confirms the next impulsive rally towards at least 124.20. If, however, the short-term important support at 118.55 fails to protect the downside, that will extend the corrective decline towards 117.67 before renewed upside pressure should be expected.

R3: 120.32

R2: 119.86

R1: 119.51

Pivot: 118.80

S1: 118.55

S2: 118,00

S3: 117.67

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR at 119.25 with stop placed at 118.50. If you are not long EUR yet, then only buy a break above 119.51 and use the same stop.

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24.02.2017
01:39 PM


AUD/USD rising as expected, remain bullish

We avoided the false bearish breakout perfectly as we continue to play the rise towards our profit target. The plan is to remain bullish above the 0.7668 support (long-term ascending support, Fibonacci retracement) for a further push up to the 0.7780 resistance (major swing high resistance).

The RSI (34) is seeing support above the 45% level. Only a break of this support level would be the precursor to a bearish move being seen. We can see a bullish exit too signalling a further rise on AUDUSD is expected.

Buy above 0.7668. Stop loss at 0.7603. Take profit at 0.7780.

analytics58b0379c4dfb6.png

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24.02.2017
01:36 PM


EURJPY bouncing nicely, remain bullish

The price has bounced off nicely at the 118.70 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support, Fibonacci extension). We look to buy above this level to play a push up to at least 120.66 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 6.4% level.

Buy above 118.70. Stop loss at 117.47. Take profit at 120.66.

analytics58b036bc631c0.png

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24.02.2017
01:32 PM


GBP/USD profit target reached once again, remain bullish

The price has shot up and reached our profit target perfectly as expected. We now remain bullish above the 1.2510 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a further push up to the 1.2651 resistance (major Fibonacci extension).

The RSI (34) has made a nice bullish exit signalling that a further rise in the price is expected.

Buy above 1.2510. Stop loss at 1.2421. Take profit at 1.2651.

analytics58b035cecc086.png

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24.02.2017
01:29 PM


NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, time to start selling

The price shot up and reached our profit target perfectly yesterday. We now turn bearish below the 0.7240 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a drop to the 0.7176 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 92% level.

Sell below 0.7240. Stop loss at 0.7285. Take profit at 0.7176.

analytics58b03523d1d67.png

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24.02.2017
01:28 PM


USD/CHF approaching major support, prepare to buy

The price is approaching major support at 1.0033 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal support), where we expect to see a bounce towards at least 1.0090 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

The RSI (34) is approaching our long-term ascending support where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 1.0033. Stop loss at 1.0000. Take profit at 1.0090.

analytics58b034df50dbb.png

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24.02.2017
01:16 PM


GBP/CAD Fundamental Analysis February 24, 2017

GBP/CAD has been inside a long corrective structure since January and still there has been no stronger currency to surpass each other. This week, GBP had positive fundamental reports like the GDP data (0.7% vs. 0.6% expected) and the today BBA mortgage approvals data, which was also positive with 44.7K (41.9K expected). Currently, GBP is fundamentally stronger than CAD, but CAD high impact news is to be published soon. Today Canada's CPI report will be published (+0.3% expected; -0.2% previous). If the CAD report turns out to be positive, we might see good volatility in the market or else GBP is going to continue its gains over CAD.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently near the resistance 1.6486-1.6500 area. As the price is still inside the corrective area and high-impact CAD CPI news is going to be published soon, we will be looking forward to buy when the price breaks above 1.6500 with a daily close. Without a daily close above the resistance and good-amount bullish pressure, it would not be quite preferable to buy on this pair. On the other hand, if the price rejects from the resistance, we will be looking forward to sell after the price rejects from the resistance with a daily close below the resistance level.

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24.02.2017
12:58 PM


EUR/JPY analysis for February 24, 2017

analytics58b02dabc0770.png

Recently, the EUR/JPY has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 118.89. According to the 15M time frame, I found the potential inverted Head and Shoulders formation (bullish formation), which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of neckline (supply trend line) to confirm the HSS pattern. There is a spring (shakeout) in the background, which is another good sign of strength. The upward target is set at the price of 119.47.

Resistance levels:

R1: 119.55

R2: 119.70

R3: 119.95

Support levels:

S1: 119.00

S2: 118.90

S3: 118.60

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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24.02.2017
12:24 PM


GBP/USD analysis for February 24, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2550. According to the 15M time frame, I found potetnial re-accumulation in progress. GBP/USD is range-trading between the prices of 1.2523 (support) and 1.2570. I found a spring bar (shakeout bar), which is a sign that we may see a higher price on GBP/USD. Anyway, final confirmation will be if the price breaks the resistance at 1.2570. Upward targets are set at the prices of 1.2600,1.2650, and 1.2700.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2560

R2: 1.2597

R3: 1.2650

Support levels:

S1: 1.2465

S2: 1.2430

S3: 1.2380

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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24.02.2017
12:11 PM


GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis February 24, 2017

GBP/USD broke out of the corrective structure yesterday with a massive impulsive move. Yesterday, GBP gained a good amount of strength after US Unemployment Claims report had some surplus at 244k which was expected to be 242k. Before the US event, GB CBI Realized Sales report was also published at 9 which was expected to be 5. After the events, GBP gained momentum to break above the long-awaited corrective structure resistance at 1.25. Today GBP had the BBA mortgage approvals report, which was forecasted to be 41.9k and came out to be 44.7k. Currently GBP is fundamentally quite strong against the USD and it is expected that if the momentum of GBP remains the same, upwards movements are expected in this pair to reach the resistance 1.2730.

Now let us look at the technical view, currently the price is just above the 1.2550 area, which has turned into support. If today the price remains above 1.2550 with a daily close, it is expected that from next week we can see more bullish moves towards the next resistance at 1.2730. It would be safer to look for buy above the 1.2570 near-term resistance at the point. On the other hand, if the price closes below the support area 1.2515-50, then the corrective structure will continue.

analytics58b022ee73b1d.jpg

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24.02.2017
11:51 AM


Trading Plan for EURUSD and USDJPY for February 24, 2017

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Technical Outlook:

The hourly chart is indicating a perfect convergence of the trend-line resistance, the former support becoming future resistance, and the Fibonacci resistance for EUR/USD. Going through the wave structure, the pair seems to have terminated wave 2 within the presumed wave (3) as seen on the chart. Wave (1) was an impulse that terminated at 1.0502, while wave (2) correction terminated at 1.0680 levels. Wave (3), which should unfold into 5 sub waves, seems to have already completed waves 1 (1.0492) and 2 (1.0600) levels. If this count holds true, wave 3 of (3) should drop from here, and it could be fast and sharp. Also note that the trend-line resistance is seen around same levels, capping any further rallies. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0680 levels while support is at 1.0492 levels. Remain short now.

Trading plan:

Selling on rallies was recommended yesterday. Prices have almost triggered 1.0600 levels now, downside is seen at parity. Please exit long positions now. Remain short, stop at 1.0850, target is 1.0300 and 1.0000.

USDJPY chart setups:

analytics58b01b5623e6a.jpg

Technical Outlook:

The hourly chart depicted above shows a slight change in the wave structure. The drop from 114.95 levels has taken shape of a complex correction A-B-C as shown here. Please note that the earlier rally was unfolded into an impulse (5 waves), hence ideally prices should remain above 111.60 levels going forward. Also note that the pair has again tested the Fibonacci 0.786 support levels and a bullish bounce should be expected here. Only if prices break below 111.60 levels, the structure would change. Immediate support is seen at 111.60, while resistance is at 113.00 levels. Prices have dropped slightly lower below 112.80 as expected yesterday, but holding longs is preferred trading strategy for now.

Trading plan:

Please remain long for now, stop at 111.60, target is 117.00.

Fundamental Outlook:

The CAD Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release at 08:30 am EST, forecast is 1.6%. It should not have much impact on the above pairs. Please trade according to suggestions given above. Both the above trading plans are good for the day. Targets can be expected in a few weeks.

Good luck!

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24.02.2017
11:04 AM


USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 24, 2017

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The USD/CAD pair challenged the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3360-1.3400 which succeeded to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) was achieved.

This allowed a further decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3080 (the lower limit of the depicted channel) where bullish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

A bullish breakout above 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel). However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recent established top).

The price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support for the recent bearish pullback.

That is why the recent bearish pullback toward 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) offered a valid BUY entry as expected in previous articles.

This week, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) is needed to enhance bullish advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3550. Otherwise, the USD/CAD pair remains trapped within the current consolidation range (1.2970-1.3300).

On the other hand, DAILY closure below 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) will confirm a double-top pattern with projected bearish targets at 1.2860, 1.2730, and 1.2600.

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24.02.2017
11:00 AM


NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 24, 2017

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On December 16, the price level of 0.6990 failed to apply enough bullish pressure.

Instead of that, bearish movement continued toward the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone (0.6860), which provided significant bullish rejection on December 23.

The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (Key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed further bullish advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (Sell Zone) where bearish price action should be expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 is needed to allow further bearish decline toward 0.7100 (note the previous bearish DAILY candlesticks expressed within the SELL Zone).

On the other hand, any bearish pullback toward 0.7100 should be watched for possible bullish price action.

Otherwise, bearish persistence below 0.7100 will probably allow further bearish fall toward 0.6960.

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24.02.2017
10:54 AM


Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 24, 2017

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By the end of June, a significant bearish break below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (Fundamental Reasons).

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario toward the price levels around 1.2700 (Bearish projection target).

The GBP/USD pair has been trapped inside the depicted consolidation range (above 1.2700) until a bearish breakout took place on October 6.

Daily persistence below 1.2700 confirmed the bearish Flag pattern. That is why a bearish projection target was expected near 1.2020.

On October 25, bullish recovery was initiated around the price level of 1.2080. That is why a bullish pullback was executed toward 1.2700-1.2750.

Risky traders considered this bullish pullback toward the price zone of 1.2700-1.2750 to be a valid SELL entry. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On January 16, a bullish engulfing candlestick was expressed around the demand level of 1.2000. That is why another bullish breakout above 1.2430 was initiated.

The next bullish target is located around 1.2750 where bearish rejection should be expected.

On the other hand, the next bearish destination would be located around 1.1200 when bearish momentum is resumed.

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24.02.2017
10:52 AM


Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 24, 2017

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010.

Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if the current monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair will remain trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0570-1.1400).

analytics58b01040a562a.png

The longer term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish persistence below 1.0575 is needed to pursue this bearish scenario.

On November 14, bearish persistence below 1.0825 (Key Level 2) allowed further decline toward 1.0570 (demand level) where evident bullish rejection was expressed on November 24.

Shortly after, the Fibonacci Level 50% (1.0825) constituted a recent supply level which offered a valid SELL entry on December 8.

Bearish persistence below the depicted demand level (1.0570) was expected to allow further decline toward 1.0220. However, significant bullish recovery was expressed around the price level of 1.0340 on January 3.

Bullish persistence above 1.0600 allowed further advance toward 1.0825-1.0850 (Fibonacci Level 50%) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were anticipated.

At the moment, the price level of 1.0570-1.0500 stands as a prominent demand zone to be watched for a valid bullish entry (note the bullish Head & Shoulders Pattern with the initial target at 1.0800).

Otherwise, further decline can be executed toward 1.0400 if the current break below 1.0570 is maintained.

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24.02.2017
10:38 AM


Daily analysis of major pairs for February 24, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair, which is in a short-term downtrend, bounced upwards yesterday. The upward bounce could end up being a good opportunity to sell short at a better price. The market could still reach the support lines at 1.0550 and 1.0500 within the next several trading days, unless the resistance line at 1.0750 is breached.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair, which is in a short-term uptrend, pulled back yesterday. The pullback could end up being a good opportunity to buy long at a better price. The market could still reach the support levels at 1.0100 and 1.0150 within the next several trading days.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair went upwards on Thursday. The EMA 11 is now above the EMA 56, while the 14-period RSI is above the level 50. This has created a short-term bullish signal in the market, and it is possible for the price to reach the distribution territories at 1.2600, 1.2650, and 1.2700, which would eventually lead to a strong bullish bias in the market.

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USD/JPY: There is now a bearish signal on the USD/JPY pair. The price is below the supply level at 113.00, going towards the demand level at 112.50 and 112.00. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the 4-hour chart, which shows that it is logical to seek short trades in the market, unless a significant rally takes place.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is in a downtrend, having gone further south this week. The demand zones are likely to be at 119.00, 118.50 and 118.00 within the next several trading days. Any upward bounces would be transitory, offering better opportunities to go short.

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24.02.2017
08:41 AM


Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 24, 2017

NZDUSDH4.png

Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.7220. Currently, the price is seen at 0.7240. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7220 followed by 0.7265 (major resistance), while the daily support 1 is found at 0.7118. Besides, the level of 0.7118 represents a daily pivot point for that it is acting as a key level today. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.7265 towards the first support level at 0.7118 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.7118, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.7118 with the second target of 0.7057. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.7265, then this scenario may be invalidated.
NZDUSDH4in.png
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24.02.2017
08:31 AM


Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 24, 2017

USDCHFH1.png

Overview:

  • As expected, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.0095. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.0095 to the bottom around 1.0040. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0095 followed by 1.0115, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.0034. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 1.0095 and 1.0010; for that we expect a range of 85 pips (1.0095 - 1.0010) at least. If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0095, the market will decline further to 1.0034. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.0034 with a view to test the daily pivot point and continues towards the next objective of 1.0010. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.0095 (major resistance), then this scenario may become invalidated.
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24.02.2017
08:23 AM


Trading plan for 24/02/2017

Trading plan for 24/02/2017:

On Friday, 24th of February, there will be three important economic releases during the European and American trading sessions: Consumer Price Index from Canada and New Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment data from the U.S.

USD/CAD analysis for 24/02/2017:

The Consumer Price Index from Canada will be released at 01:30 pm GMT and the market participants are expecting upbeat data: the CPI is expected to increase from -0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 1.5% to 1.6% on a year-to-year basis. This kind of inflation expectations might suggest a further rebound of the Canadian dollar after yesterday's weak retail sales data. Any number better than 0.3% might cause a sell-off in the USD/CAD pair.

So let's take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture to find out any good trading setup before the news release. The price has broken out of the golden channel and now is approaching the technical support at the level of 1.0381. In a case of better-than-expected data, this level will be easily violated and the market will target the next support at the level of 1.0323.

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USD/JPY analysis for 24/02/2017:

The U.S. February Consumer Sentiment is scheduled for release at 03:00 pm GMT today, together with New Home Sales data. The consumer sentiment index is expected to have declined a bit to 96 from January's 98.5. The large increase of the sentiment index in January still limits any immediate upward gains. The index has rarely reached 100-level in the past and the last time it was just before the dotcom bust in early 2000's.

The data from the U.S. housing market is expected to reach another pretty good level of 567K homes in the last month, which would have been better result than 536K homes sold in January. The better-than-expected number would provide another prove of a stable housing market in the U.S., but the sales are still below a post-crisis record of 622K homes sold.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H1 time frame. The bulls did not manage to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 112.90 and the price is not reversing towards the next technical support at the level of 112.54. For US Dollar to rally here, both economic releases must deliver better-than-expected data. In that case, the target for USD/JPY rate would be at the level of 113.27 and higher. However, if the data disappoint the market participants, the drop can extend towards the next support at the level of 112.23.

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Market snapshot - GBP/USD ahead of critical resistance

The GBP/USD pair has been trading above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2523 since yesterday and now the bulls might try to test the resistance at the level of 1.2581. Any violation of this level would lead to another test of the technical resistance at the level of 1.2705 - 1.2729. A lack of an impulsive rally above the resistance will likely end up with the price returning back to the range.

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Market snapshot - GOLD break out towards 61% Fibo level

The yellow metal has finally broken higher above the technical resistance at the level of 1,241 and now is approaching the 61%Fibo at the level of 1,255. The fact that this level will act as a resistance now and the deeply overbought market conditions might indicate a possible corrective move in this market. The growing bearish divergence supports this view.

analytics58afed9a592c5.jpg

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24.02.2017
08:16 AM


Technical analysis of USDX for February 24, 2017

The US dollar weakness intensified yesterday once the price broke below 101.40 as we expected. The price broke our short-term support and has already reached our first target of 100.80 as I mentioned in yesterday's analysis.

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Blue line - resistance

Red line - support

The 4-hour chart of the US dollar index is not promising. A double top formation and a break below the Kumo (cloud) support are worrying signs for bulls. If support at 100.40 breaks, then the 99.25 level will be in danger. Bulls need to recapture the 101.40 level again and make a higher low for the bullish scenario to work.

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Black line - Head and Shoulders neckline support

Green line - long-term trend line support

The weekly chart shows us that traders are indecisive and there is no clear trend in the short term. In the longer term,m the price remains above the critical support at 99.25 where the neckline of the weekly Head and Shoulders pattern is found. T he price got rejected at the weekly tenkan-sen (Red line indicator). This is not a good sign. Above 101.80, we see 103 and new highs. Below 99.25 bad news for bulls.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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